marine weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 215 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017
Marine weather discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical North Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w and the southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
...Gulf of Mexico...
Recent scatterometer data and buoy observations indicate fresh to strong southeast flow across much of the Gulf waters and in The Straits of Florida. A few buoys over the NW Gulf are reporting minimal gale force winds at times. These winds are currently building seas to near 10 ft. Seas will build to 12-13 ft over much of the northwest and north central Gulf through tonight given the long duration of strong southeast winds. These winds are the result of a tight pressure gradient between a ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida into the eastern Gulf and a low pressure developing over Texas. The low pressure will move into the Central Plains through tonight, with a trailing cold front moving off the Texas coast early Sunday. Strong to near gale force winds will follow the front along the coast of Mexico through Sunday, likely reaching minimal gale force for brief periods off tamaulipas and Veracruz on Sunday with seas to 10 ft. The 12z run of the GFS model suggests that minimal gale conditions will occur across forecast zone gmz017 early Sunday morning, and across forecast zone gmz023 early Sunday afternoon. The low pressure will lift farther north of the area through Sunday, allowing winds and seas to diminish through early Monday. The front will stall from the western Panhandle to the southwest Gulf early Monday and lift north through early Tuesday. High pressure will build across the northern Gulf allowing moderate to fresh southerly return flow to set up across the Gulf into mid week. Looking ahead, another cold front may enter the NW Gulf late Wednesday night also followed by gale force winds.
...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...
A ridge located north of the area will continue to support overnight pulses of fresh to strong E-se winds near the Gulf of Honduras, and easterly trade winds off Colombia and northwest Venezuela and a smaller area south of Cabo Beata in southern Dominican Republic through Sunday night. Fesh trade winds and seas 6 to 8 ft are expected over the central Caribbean through late Sunday as high pressure builds north of the area. Similarly, fresh northeast winds are likely into the Windward Passage by late Sunday. Winds and seas diminish from Monday through the middle of next week as the high pressure weakens and shifts east.
...SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas...
A 1031 mb high pressure situated near 35n42w extends a ridge across the SW N Atlantic and Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. This ridge is supporting fresh to strong southeast flow across the south waters, particularly from the north coast of Hispaniola through the southern Bahamas to The Straits of Florida. The pattern will persist through late Sunday, with fresh to strong winds likely near the approaches to the Windward Passage. Generally gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will persist elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Southeast to south return flow will increase off the coast of northeast Florida through late Monday as a weakening cold front approaches the area from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The front will stall along the Florida coast by early Tuesday then become diffuse. Winds and seas diminish late Tuesday through Wednesday as weak high pressure builds west along roughly 28n.
.Warnings...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS ii collaboration chat, or by telephone:
.Gulf of Mexico... .gmz017...W central Gulf from 22n to 26n W of 94w... Gale Warning sun. Gale conditions possible Thu. .Gmz023...SW Gulf S of 22n W of 94w... Gale Warning sun into Sun night. Gale conditions possible Thu into Thu night.
.Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w... none.
.SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas... None.
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/abouttafbprod.Shtml#owf
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National digital forecast database (ndfd) at: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine/grids.Php
For additional information, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine
.Forecaster gr. National Hurricane Center.