Marine Weather for HS 101

Forecast

marine weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 259 am EST sun Nov 19 2017

Marine weather discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical North Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w and the southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...Gulf of Mexico...

A strong cold front has pushed into the NW Gulf from Texas. The front currently crosses the NW Gulf from near Pensacola Florida to south of Brownsville Texas near 25n97w. There is no significant convection in the vicinity of the front as high pressure over the Gulf is causing strong subsidence. The front will extend from Pensacola Florida to Brownsville Texas early Sunday, from ft Myers Florida to Veracruz Mexico early Monday, then push into the southern Gulf and weaken on Tuesday. Buoy and platform observations indicate sustained winds to gale force north of the front and west of 90w. Winds in this area should quickly subside today as high pressure builds se over Texas. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE winds will prevail north and west of the front today with seas building to 8-10 ft. Winds will also reach gale force over the favored locations in the Mexican coastal waters near Tampico and Veracruz on sun and Sun night, respectively. Marine conditions will improve significantly Mon and Tue as the front progresses ESE and weakens. The next cold front will enter the Gulf on Wed. Models are in general agreement in spinning up low pressure along the front in the NE Gulf, then advecting it NE over Florida on Thu.

...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...

Light to moderate winds generally prevail over the Caribbean as low pressure moving eastward from the United States weakens the ridge over the western Atlc. A 1007 mb low is centered north of Colombia near 13n71w. A trough curves NE from the low through the Mona Passage. To the NW of the trough, fresh NE winds are funneling through the Mona and windward passages. These winds will diminish further later today as the high pressure shifts farther eastward. Expect for the trough and low to remain nearly stationary over the central Caribbean, but weaken and eventually dissipate Mon and Tue. The weak pressure gradient should remain in place over the Caribbean until Thu, when a cold front will enter the NW Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico.

...SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas...

High pressure centered east of Bermuda is generally maintaining moderate winds over the forecast waters. NE swell are maintaining seas around 8 ft well outside of the Bahamas from 25n to 28n E of 68w. The winds and seas will diminish through tonight as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. The trough will linger over southeast waters this weekend, then weaken Monday. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast this afternoon, extend from Bermuda to The Straits of Florida by early Mon, before stalling Tue and lifting northward again through mid week. Strong SW flow with seas approaching 8 ft will occur ahead of the front off northeast Florida this morning, followed by fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds and seas to 8 ft behind the front in open waters north of 26n through early Mon.

$$

.Warnings...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS ii collaboration chat, or by telephone:

.Gulf of Mexico... .gmz017...W central Gulf from 22n to 26n W of 94w... Gale Warning today. .Gmz023...SW Gulf S of 22n W of 94w... Gale Warning today into tonight.

.Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w... none.

.SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/abouttafbprod.Shtml#owf

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National digital forecast database (ndfd) at: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine/grids.Php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.

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