marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 119 PM PDT Wed Jul 18 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
12z global model data continues with good agreement, particularly through day 4, when some very minor differences arise. None of these differences will really affect the forecast conditions much, but it should be noted that they are there as model agreement may differ a bit in the later model runs--we will keep an eye on these changes for the next forecast packages and make adjustments as necessary. The models continue with excellent consistency in this somewhat stagnant pattern. A high pressure ridge is expected to continue over the pz5 and pz6 waters through much of the forecast, with a coastal low pressure trough continuing to strengthen along the California coast, then expanding north along the Oregon coast. Gales can be expected along the northern California and southern Oregon coasts as the trough strengthens. As a trough near Vancouver Island develops Friday, we can also expect some stronger winds, 20 to 30 kt, in the northeastern pz5 zones.
With the model agreement and consistency, will continue the forecast with a 50/50 blend of the current forecast and the 12z GFS as the starting point. Expect some edits to account for any of the minor differences in the model data.
.Seas...The ww3 has continued to initialize well based on observations. With the use of the previous forecast and the GFS, will use a 50/50 blend of the previous forecast and the ww3.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale tonight into Thursday night. Gale possible Friday into Saturday.
.Forecaster Sommerville. Ocean prediction center.