marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 214 PM PDT Mon Mar 27 2017
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The satellite images have continued to show mostly low clouds across the region while clouds associated with a cold front west of the region are spreading east. The lightning density map stll has very few lightning strikes over the southern waters and the sref model also has prob 0 for severe tstms across the region. The sref model also suggest prob 0 across the forecast waters through the short term. The latest observations show higher winds from the west over the northern waters with maximum 30 kt over the waters adjacent to WA and or. At 1800z the NCEP map still has a trough just east of the north waters while high pressure 1029 mb is 540 nm west of the southern waters with its ridge extending northeast into the central region. A cold front stretches southwest across the far southern waters from inland low pressure 1006 mb over southern NV/CA. A fairly relaxed pressure gradient dominates the southern region.
The models GFS/CMC/ecmwfhr/ukmethr have continued to show a fairly decent initialization with the 18z surface observations. However, the models have some problems regarding low pressure that will move norheast over the north waters. The general consensus is to weaken the low pressure and relax the pressure gradient resulting in diminshed winds across the region. Otherwise, the models agree on building high pressure to west of the southern waters in the short term with pressure gradient briefly tightening over the southeastern waters. A relaxed presure gradient will prevail again Tuesday night onwards over the southern waters. Will stay with GFS for this issuance.
.Seas...The largest seas are over the nothern waters with peak at 17 ft over the western portion. Seas are quite modest elsewhere ranging between 8 and 12 ft. The wave models nww3 and ecmwfwave have continued to initialize well with the observed seas pattern and they are also in good agreement through most of the forecast period. So will continue with nww3 for seas.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale possible Friday night. .Pzz825...Inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale possible Thursday night into Friday night. .Pzz830...Inner waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale possible Thursday night into Friday night. .Pzz930...Outer waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale possible Friday night. .Pzz835...Inner waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA... gale possible Thursday night. Gale possible Friday night. .Pzz935...Outer waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA... gale possible Friday night. .Pzz840...Inner waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA... gale tonight. Gale possible Thursday night into Friday night.
.Forecaster musonda. Ocean prediction center.