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SE LA - Nonc da Nutria says Winter over here... sort of.

By: DocNDswamp , 9:43 PM GMT on February 03, 2014

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Mon February 3 2014 -
SE LA - Nonc da Nutria says Winter over here... sort of.
Caveats abound with ratty outlook!


Nonc da Nutria awoke Sunday morning, February 2nd Groundhog Day to dense fog / passing shwrs with temps in the 60's... shook the water off his coat and confidently pronounced Winter as "Game Over" for SE LA... Hmmmm, okay, granted it was a warm wet overcast day but I wondered which prediction he meant with the sports analogy, rest of Winter or the SuperBowl score at halftime... or maybe his gruff answer just indicated his irritated mood, after all Feb 2nd is known among hibernating N American rat clans (supported by 97% consensus of rodent scientists studying the event) as the much-dreaded BAD (Baseless Anthropogenic Disturbance) Day, disrupting their peaceful late-Winter slumber... even to those of SE LA still semi-active in the cold season, chomping on roots and tree bark.

Nonc replied "both" but as for who was gonna get routed in SB, hinted sumthin' bout "defense wins championships"... As for rest-of-Winter, like all experienced forecasters, he offered caveats while scratching waterfleas off his fur - "Sure, we'll still get some cold weather, could even average a little cooler than normal dis month, as did Dec-Jan" with a few more frosty morns, another light-mod freeze or two but as for truly severe arctic intrusions icing over his swampwater and pondering why the rain is coming down white and fluffy or mixed with ice pellets, Nonc says "there's higher probability it's a thing of the past"... "esp once past February 15th or so". He was expecting the cold water temps, while minimizing his gator risk, to steadily rise over next few weeks.

Nonc predicted our current brown vegetation will recover, rise from the dead back to it's healthy green state as it typically does thru February-March. Although "not as quick as such a dedicated vegetarian would hope", said a hungry Nonc, picking willow bark out his 2 front teeth while eyeing my leafy cauliflower with criminal intent... Reminded LDWF still offers a bounty on swamprat tails, he resumed the weather discussion of SE LA Winter 2013-14.

Nonc was quick to quote ancient nutria-lore which spoke of harsher winters endured by his furry forebears who walked atop great frozen swamp lakes back in the 1980's, saying it "got close, but ain't been dat bad"...
He figured this January was maybe coldest he's felt in his lifetime but similar to 2010 yet had skepticism Feb-March would continue quite as cold... He was quick to point how unpredictable weather variability can be even among experts like himself with a host of influences affecting outcome. Nonc hoped Spring won't feel so downright frigid like last year after getting fooled by a mild Winter.. He highlighted the CPC's forecast "warm" Spring Outlook in 2013 verses actual temperature departure graphic for March-April-May as proof but oddly Spring (MAM) is currently missing from their site, rankling Nonc - "Why dey do dat? Other 3-month seasonal maps for 2013 are dere and I seen it a few weeks ago"... Hmmm, he had a point - last years DJF Winter, JJA Summer, SON Fall are shown but MAM has been removed (?). Probably just temporarily out for adjustments, lol... Though available monthly maps and station data show March featured coldest weather after DJF Winter was over, continued cool in April then dipped to record-setting cold in 1st week May. Nonc's tree rat relatives claimed that crucial period contributed to most pathetic pecan crop yield in years this recent Fall. I concur... we got nuthin' of nuts off our trees despite otherwise decent conditions, a typical mix of dry spells with rainy ones. AND worry-free of hurricanes or tropical storms usually destructive impact causing losses, a rarity! You'd think 2013's 78" rain sufficient... Summer was a tad less hot, May eventually warmed, had a warm June followed by cooler / typically wet July-August - warmest temp all summer a mere 96F - and while Sep-Oct was dry and touch warmer, then colder Nov-Dec. The most extreme temp deviation being that abnormally cold Spring, overruling DJF, June and Fall warmth for an annual temp mean below avg. 2012 was both warmer and wetter with 83.5" rain, plus had Hurricane Isaac blow thru, yet pecans were abundant for me and da squirrel-rats... so...

I catch Nonc yawning, half asleep as I stray off-topic. "Hey, you want my outlook or wanna live in da past?" Sure, sure Nonc... "It's like dis - Plan for day length getting longer each day, warm up to follow." And with that, he swam off into the swamp...

Darn rat... Never got to ask what he thought of the myriad influences on our weather / climate system with NAO / AO, polar vortex lobes, PNA, TNH, PDO / ENSO, the AMO, AMOC / thermohaline / ocean circulation, and... and...

Nonc, clearly has greater concerns.
;)


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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21. seflagamma
1:25 AM GMT on March 12, 2017
Doc. My Leo Snake bro. Have not heard from you in a while. But just know I am going to miss just knowing you are around.
I am over on FB and info in my blog.
But I have always kept my WU a log all these years.
Going to be strange to say good bye tinsonmany friends I have met over the past 12 years.

Take care. Hope all is well. Stay in touch as you can.
Patti. Aka Gams.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
20. LakeWorthFinn
1:54 AM GMT on March 09, 2017
Wab, I saw a post from Crab just a few months ago....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
19. LakeWorthFinn
1:23 AM GMT on March 09, 2017
{{{Doc}}}
You got WU-mail
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
18. palmettobug53
5:02 PM GMT on March 11, 2016
Yoo hoo! Doc? You popped up in the blog directory and I thought you'd peeped in.

Are you getting rained out?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
17. LakeWorthFinn
8:40 AM GMT on March 11, 2016
Just checking to see if you're ok. Report, pls.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
16. LakeWorthFinn
6:54 AM GMT on August 13, 2014
{{{Doc}}} - no matter which day you were born, I wish you'll have many more birthdays to celebrate and have us all confused about the date :) And that every day of yours is a good one!

Stormjunkie of course knows which day... Happy Birthday to you too SJ !
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
15. palmettobug53
4:17 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Birthday? Annudder one?

boy, they sure come around faster and faster these days.


Hope it is/was/will be a good one! (What day is this, anyway? I'm so confused.....)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
14. StormJunkie
3:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Happy Birthday Doc! Hope all is well!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
13. LakeWorthFinn
3:34 PM GMT on June 25, 2014
You should write a book, you really should. You have a gift to make people laugh when you write. It's a rare and valuable gift Doc.
Good to see you, all well here. Jamie & I just retired and now enjoy our time together. Also the writing and gardening.. Life is wunderful!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
12. DocNDswamp
10:07 PM GMT on June 15, 2014
Hi folks, summer greetings on an outdated blog, lol…
Abundant rainfall today here on Fathers Day, so had time to check about.

Hey Finn,
Been okay, hope all well with you.. other than the scary oleander incident, glad Lucy survived - avoid garfish eggs too, same deal. Or, mix those with oleander for a tossed salad to serve any unwanted guests!

Hiya TK,
Wow, I might have to take a ride down there… if ever get a break from my grass-whacking duties, lol. Man, if you're working on it, know the work will be 1st class. One of my cousins from MS worked on the HNC floodgate a year or so ago.

Howdy BF,
Hmmmm, seems I've done a great job avoiding both, lol… but I do miss friends here!
Been busy / lack time, sure, but my interest in posting on this site has continued to diminish. At the least, I should have offered a follow-up of old Nonc-Rat's late-Winter / Spring forecast, eh? Ha, ha… he was right! -- It was cool, but with only 1 last freeze Feb 7th, w 3 frosts that month… Cold, but no freeze or frosts in March… a cool-mild April, with a late frost on April 16th(!) beating my prev record latest observation by 1 day (2008)… a cool May, incl lows in up 40's on 15-16th - latest dip into 40's I can recall here… and locally we finally hit our 1st 90F on June 6th, about 3 weeks later than normal… So, generally cooler and drier than avg most of this year but within 1-2" of YTD norms now… On the heels of the 5th coldest DJF on record… Hey, Nonc made me say it… ;)

Hello Bug,
Greetings at ya… Yes, I'm home at Bayou Cane… or at the other home in Bayou Blue…Oh, you meant the blog home - yes, looks like it's gotten dusty once again, sorry 'bout that, watch your step… Ya know how it goes, some "guys are like bears" analogy - unkempt, ransacked appearance, an authentic dirt floor, dank musty odors wafting the nostrils… and I'm grunting like an old bear more every day… ;)

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
11. tkeith
4:46 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting palmettobug53:
DRAT! I thought Doc was home!

Sorry Bug I started to put a disclaimer:)

Hey BF, there aren't too many days I dont peek in to the blogs while I check the weather I'm looking forward to the time when I can spend a little more time here, when it's not "the season"

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
10. palmettobug53
4:40 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 8. Barefootontherocks:
Like anyone can swear off posting at wu. I couldn't. Easier to just stay away from certain parts of town. ;)

Finn's here also and we are about to find code to parachute in and make a hole in your roof!

Miss you.


I like that! What a perfect way to describe it.


I stay away from certain parts of town, myself! lol
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9. palmettobug53
4:39 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
DRAT! I thought Doc was home!
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8. Barefootontherocks
4:16 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Like anyone can swear off posting at wu. I couldn't. Easier to just stay away from certain parts of town. ;)

Finn's here also and we are about to find code to parachute in and make a hole in your roof!

Miss you.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
7. tkeith
3:37 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Hey Doc, just letting you know I'll be in your neck of da swamp for a while. Building a flood gate on Petite Cailliou down at Cocodrie. Stop by and see me sometime.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
6. LakeWorthFinn
8:12 AM GMT on June 03, 2014
Time to find time to come unlock your house so we don't have break in or make a hole in the roof for the chute-gals ;)
Seen you go through some rough weather this spring. How are you my friend? Mom ok?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5. DocNDswamp
9:42 PM GMT on February 04, 2014
Checking in...

Dense fog an issue this morning lasting well late, temps up 60's as warm front lifted N... Noting rain shwrs over W LA / S Cen LA in 2 bands, likely tstms in heavier cluster approaching New Iberia / Lafayette now - keeping eye on via KLCH radar... Not out of question some could be strong and into overnight hrs as system crawls across LA...

Oh, before some take offense...
After me and Nonc had a little fun tossing rat scat at the CPC about the oddly missing MAM graphics, in fairness I'll point out within CPC's site all forecast outlooks and verification are indeed readily available for edification from - CPC Monthly & Seasonal Forecast Archive... and CPC Gridded Seasonal Verifications (and Heidke Skill scores)...

Here the mentioned Spring MAM 2013 forecast temps... and the observed Spring MAM 2013 temps in comparison. Tho I still like seeing the other graph shaded in degrees of departure extremes.

Similarly comparing current period Nov-Dec-Jan observed temp has been colder than outlook forecasted yielding another poor skill score, although did much better with precip...

Commentary -
IMO from examining a few, if there's a trend with CPC over past few years toward poor verification score, it's generally been colder temps blowing a repetitiously broad-brushed warm forecast. And more commonly occurs in the Fall Winter Spring monthly / seasonal forecasts... Summer forecasts have often scored better. Perhaps attempting too linear a continuity of warmth, expectations based on recent overall decadal trends... and too little acknowledgment that natural variability remains wide ranging involving a host of influences.

There are major issues to note, and that's the constant struggle, if you will, of connecting the complex teleconnections involved... with each individual tele pattern spanning periods of weeks to multi-decades (to centurial scales!) featuring high-variability and interweaving fluctuations. Observing the tele patterns offers guidance aspects with some, not much with some others that are short-term in their state, merely reflecting present conditions. We're still in the learning stage of such knowledge identifying their range / characteristics... from atmospheric to oceanic and multiple combinations thereof.

Later...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
4. DocNDswamp
5:52 AM GMT on February 04, 2014
Hello Skye,
LOL, I value my fingers too much to try... ;)

Hey, got an update for ya - harvested several those cheddar cauliflower, excellent fare!
Hard to describe diff with snow crowns, other than to say full-flavored. Might have to cook both same time to get better comparison... The smaller surrounding leaves were quite good too.

Recommended, thumbs up!
(and letting 2 go to seed - used transplants originally)


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
3. Skyepony (Mod)
5:33 AM GMT on February 04, 2014
Nice to see someone asking the rodents on their terms..not gankin them out a hole & declaring some predetermined forecast:)
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2. DocNDswamp
5:21 AM GMT on February 04, 2014
Howdy Miss Barefoot,
Glad you enjoyed Nonc's outlook... ornery cuss he is to snag, heluva lot less docile than TV child star P-Phil!

Why yes... CPC musta figured that chilly preliminary Spring MAM temp data needed additional processing for consensual consumption... shoulda screen-shotted it - like I did the ever-changing versions Houma Temp Records WU Local Climate page presented over a 16 month period... It's a hoot... trust the data when ya pick the cherry ya like! ;)

Always welcome, pleased you posted!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. Barefootontherocks
3:02 AM GMT on February 04, 2014
MAM has been removed (?). Probably just temporarily out for adjustments, lol...
LMAO here... and dere... and dere. Maybe NoncdaNutria will return as a featured blogger.
;)

Though I have sworn off posting at wu, this was just too good to pass by without a word. Thank you for the laughs!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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