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Caleb/Debbie/WA Tropical Low

By: HadesGodWyvern , 12:22 AM GMT on March 01, 2017


BLOG INFORMATION LAST UPDATED
26MAR2017 15:00 p.m UTC UTC/26MAR2017 10:00 a.m. CDT





The current conditions in my area (KILSTERL1) data

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Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2017 season
=================================================
-----------------
Northwestern Pacific
-----------------
Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

------------------
Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

------------------------
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

-------------------------
Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

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Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

CURRENT ACTIVE STORMS IN THE WORLD

-------------------------------------------------
========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency


Tropical Disturbance Summary
==========================

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
==============================

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

Next ID: TD 02

------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------

========================
Northern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: New Delphi


India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
===============================

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

Next ID BOB01/ARB01

---------------------------------------------- -------------------

========================
Southwestern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius
RSMC: Seychelles


Seychelles Meteorological Services

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
=====================

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
March
06R.Enawo - 925 hPa
07R.Fernando - 988 hPa

Next ID: 08R

-------------------------------------------------
========================
Southeastern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth (90E-125E)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin (125E-142E)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta (north of 10S)


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth

TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE
16.0ºS 98.7ºE - 40 knots 996 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
=======================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (996 hPa) located at 16.0S 98.7E or 470 km south southeast of Cocos Island and 980 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
45 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
75 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
45 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.0S 97.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.2S 96.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.4S 94.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 17.2S 90.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located using visible and microwave imagery.

The system has been moving slowly westwards over the last 6 hours. The building low and middle level ridge to the south of the system will maintain general west southwest motion.

Dvorak analysis [EIR]: center <3/4 degree from strong T gradient [although strong T gradient somewhat difficult to find], DT is 2.5. Trend was W-. MET/PAT 2.5. FT is 2.5 with CI held at 3.0. Convection has diminished somewhat over the past 3 hours.

CIMSS ADT at 1210 UTC had a CI of 3.2, NESDIS ADT at 1200 UTC was 2.9. SATCON at 26 0849 UTC was 48 knots.

Partial ASCAT passes around 02 UTC showed 35 knot winds to the southeast of the center.

Intensity set to 40 knots.

Microwave imagery: GMI at 0656 UTC showed an area of deep convection to the west and southwest of the center. TC_SSMIS at 0909 UTC showed some deep convection to the west of the center.

CIMSS shear at 12 UTC was east at about 5 knots with upper divergence to the south of the system. TPW showed drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system and starting to impinge on southeast parts of the circulation. Ocean Heat Content is marginal. Sea surface temperatures are 26-28C.

Shear should remain low over the system until Tuesday when northwest shear may increase. Dry air entrainment and marginal sea surface temperatures should limit development. Tropical cyclone intensity is expected until Tuesday morning, although Caleb may weaken below tropical cyclone intensity as early as Monday afternoon/evening. Gales may persist in southern quadrants until Wednesday due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge of high pressure to the south.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (26MAR)
========================

At 2:00 PM WST, a small tropical low was located near 17S 121.2E (about 150 km northwest of Broome) and was moving slowly south southwest at about 10 km/h. The system is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================
Monday: VERY LOW
Tuesday: VERY LOW
Wednesday: VERY LOW

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
=========================

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
March
20U.Blanche - 988 hPa
21U.NONAME
22U.NONAME
- 989 hPa

Next ID: 25U

========================
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin (142E-160E)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Papua New Guinea (north of 10S)


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
18.4ºS 150.7ºE - 60 knots 976 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Advice #16
=========================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two (976 hPa) located at 18.4S 150.7E or 415 km east northeast of Townsville and 310 km northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical cyclone Debbie is moving west southwest towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system early on Monday morning. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely continue on a similar track and intensify further prior to making landfall between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay overnight, and could extend to remaining coastal and adjacent inland areas between Lucinda and St Lawrence on Monday. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Innisfail and Lucinda during Monday evening.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay as early as Monday morning. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may then gradually extend further north to Lucinda during the day Monday and overnight into Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 250 km/h near the center.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS and GALES could extend inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, and Pentland later on Tuesday as the weakening cyclone moves inland.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur south of Proserpine on the high tides on Monday.

Residents between and between Lucinda and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas on Monday and continue through Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 200 mm, with isolated falls of 400 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cardwell and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 18.9S 149.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 19.2S 148.5E - 90 knots (CAT 4) east of Ayr
48 HRS 20.0S 145.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1) Overland Queensland
72 HRS 21.6S 143.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Queensland

Additional Information
=================
The amount of convection near the center of tropical cyclone Debbie has continued to wax and wane during the past 24 hours. Little improvement in the cloud signature has been seen over the past 6 hours or so. Currently the system has less deep convection than 24 hours ago, although association with the center and curvature have improved.

Intensity remains estimated at a 10 minute mean of 60 knots [category 2]. Dvorak technique gives DT4.0 based on both curved band and embedded centre patterns. MET and PAT are 3.5. Final T is 4.0. This is supported by the 0859UTC SATCON of 66 knots. NESDIS and CIMSS ADT are slightly lower at 57 knots and 55 knots [1 minute mean].

Confidence in the center position is rated as good based on radar imagery from Willis Island and Bowen radars. The fix is consistent with infrared satellite imagery.

The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the dominant steering influence, and this will maintain the system on a west southwest track for the next several days until landfall on the Queensland coast, which is currently expected during Tuesday morning. There is high confidence in this track given the simple environment and excellent consistency among deterministic and ensemble numerical weather prediction models.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at above the standard rate. This is above most objective guidance, with the ECMWF deterministic model being an exception. The forecast allows for a period of rapid intensification to occur before landfall in the favorable environment, which recent SHIPS guidance suggests is a possibility.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lucinda to St Lawrence including Townsville, Ayr, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, and areas inland of Bowen including Collinsville of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Innisfail to Lucinda, and inland areas including Charters Towers, Pentland, and Mount Coolon of Queensland

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
March
- 976 hPa

Next ID: 25U

------------------------------------------------ -------------

========================
Southeastern Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Nadi (east of 160E)
TCWC: Wellington (east of 160E and south of 25S)


Fiji Meteorological Services

Tropical Disturbance Summary
===========================

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
March
17F.NONAME - 1006 hPa
18F.NONAME - 1006 hPa

Next ID: 19F

=================================================




The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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154. HadesGodWyvern
2:47 PM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #16
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
10:51 PM EST March 26 2017
============================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two (976 hPa) located at 18.4S 150.7E or 415 km east northeast of Townsville and 310 km northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical cyclone Debbie is moving west southwest towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system early on Monday morning. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely continue on a similar track and intensify further prior to making landfall between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay overnight, and could extend to remaining coastal and adjacent inland areas between Lucinda and St Lawrence on Monday. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Innisfail and Lucinda during Monday evening.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay as early as Monday morning. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may then gradually extend further north to Lucinda during the day Monday and overnight into Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 250 km/h near the center.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS and GALES could extend inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, and Pentland later on Tuesday as the weakening cyclone moves inland.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur south of Proserpine on the high tides on Monday.

Residents between and between Lucinda and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas on Monday and continue through Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 200 mm, with isolated falls of 400 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cardwell and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 18.9S 149.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 19.2S 148.5E - 90 knots (CAT 4) east of Ayr
48 HRS 20.0S 145.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1) Overland Queensland
72 HRS 21.6S 143.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Queensland

Additional Information
=================
The amount of convection near the center of tropical cyclone Debbie has continued to wax and wane during the past 24 hours. Little improvement in the cloud signature has been seen over the past 6 hours or so. Currently the system has less deep convection than 24 hours ago, although association with the center and curvature have improved.

Intensity remains estimated at a 10 minute mean of 60 knots [category 2]. Dvorak technique gives DT4.0 based on both curved band and embedded centre patterns. MET and PAT are 3.5. Final T is 4.0. This is supported by the 0859UTC SATCON of 66 knots. NESDIS and CIMSS ADT are slightly lower at 57 knots and 55 knots [1 minute mean].

Confidence in the center position is rated as good based on radar imagery from Willis Island and Bowen radars. The fix is consistent with infrared satellite imagery.

The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the dominant steering influence, and this will maintain the system on a west southwest track for the next several days until landfall on the Queensland coast, which is currently expected during Tuesday morning. There is high confidence in this track given the simple environment and excellent consistency among deterministic and ensemble numerical weather prediction models.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at above the standard rate. This is above most objective guidance, with the ECMWF deterministic model being an exception. The forecast allows for a period of rapid intensification to occur before landfall in the favorable environment, which recent SHIPS guidance suggests is a possibility.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lucinda to St Lawrence including Townsville, Ayr, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, and areas inland of Bowen including Collinsville of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Innisfail to Lucinda, and inland areas including Charters Towers, Pentland, and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
153. HadesGodWyvern
2:39 PM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
8:46 PM WST March 26 2017
============================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (996 hPa) located at 16.0S 98.7E or 470 km south southeast of Cocos Island and 980 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
45 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
75 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
45 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.0S 97.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.2S 96.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.4S 94.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 17.2S 90.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located using visible and microwave imagery.

The system has been moving slowly westwards over the last 6 hours. The building low and middle level ridge to the south of the system will maintain general west southwest motion.

Dvorak analysis [EIR]: center <3/4 degree from strong T gradient [although strong T gradient somewhat difficult to find], DT is 2.5. Trend was W-. MET/PAT 2.5. FT is 2.5 with CI held at 3.0. Convection has diminished somewhat over the past 3 hours.

CIMSS ADT at 1210 UTC had a CI of 3.2, NESDIS ADT at 1200 UTC was 2.9. SATCON at 26 0849 UTC was 48 knots.

Partial ASCAT passes around 02 UTC showed 35 knot winds to the southeast of the center.

Intensity set to 40 knots.

Microwave imagery: GMI at 0656 UTC showed an area of deep convection to the west and southwest of the center. TC_SSMIS at 0909 UTC showed some deep convection to the west of the center.

CIMSS shear at 12 UTC was east at about 5 knots with upper divergence to the south of the system. TPW showed drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system and starting to impinge on southeast parts of the circulation. Ocean Heat Content is marginal. Sea surface temperatures are 26-28C.

Shear should remain low over the system until Tuesday when northwest shear may increase. Dry air entrainment and marginal sea surface temperatures should limit development. Tropical cyclone intensity is expected until Tuesday morning, although Caleb may weaken below tropical cyclone intensity as early as Monday afternoon/evening. Gales may persist in southern quadrants until Wednesday due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge of high pressure to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
152. HadesGodWyvern
8:14 AM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
5:30 PM EST March 26 2017
============================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two (976 hPa) located at 18.4S 151.0E or 450 km east northeast of Townsville and 340 km east northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical cyclone Debbie has adopted a general west-southwest track towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system this evening. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely continue on a similar track and intensify further prior to making landfall between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay during this evening, and could extend to remaining areas between Lucinda and St Lawrence during Monday. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Innisfail and Lucinda during Monday evening or Tuesday morning, as well as further inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay during Monday morning, before extending further northwest to Lucinda by the evening.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the center.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur south of Proserpine on the high tides on Monday. On Tuesday, residents between Rollingstone and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 200 mm, with isolated falls of 400 mm, is also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cardwell and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 18.9S 150.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 19.3S 149.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4) east of Ayr
48 HRS 20.0S 146.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1) Overland Queensland
72 HRS 21.3S 143.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Queensland

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has continued to show improved signs of development on satellite imagery over the last 24 hours. The latest Dvorak intensity analysis was based on a curved band pattern on Visible imagery with a 1.1 degree wrap, giving a DT of 4.0. MET and PAT agree, hence FT set to 4.0. ASCAT pass over the system at 22:45 UTC 25/3 was also useful for confirming wind radii. SATCON estimates have been suggested a system with an intensity of 65 knots [1-minute mean], which roughly matches the analyzed intensity when converted to a 10-minute mean.

Confidence in the center position is rated as good based on a combination of imagery from Willis Island radar, animated visible satellite imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Steering has been weak for the past 12 to 18 hours, however CIMSS satellite winds suggest a mid-level ridge building to the south of the system as forecast. This will steer the system to the west southwest for the next several days until landfall on the Queensland coast, which is currently expected during Tuesday morning, or at earliest overnight Monday. Deterministic numerical weather prediction models all follow this scenario with landfalls occurring broadly between Lucinda and Mackay along the Queensland east coast.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is excellent in all quadrants. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at slightly above the standard rate. This is generally on the high end of the objective guidance spectrum, although HWRF and recent SHIPS guidance are similar. Recent SSMIS microwave pass combined with SHIPS RI guidance suggest a period of rapid intensification is possible in the next 24 hours. Given this evidence, the intensity may be higher than forecast approaching landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lucinda to St Lawrence including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Innisfail to Lucinda, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
151. HadesGodWyvern
7:59 AM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
3:00 PM WST March 26 2017
============================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (994 hPa) located at 16.0S 99.4E or 505 km south southeast of Cocos Island and 920 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.0S 98.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.0S 97.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.9S 95.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 16.2S 92.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located with fair confidence using visible imagery. After a slight weakening between 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC, persistent convection to the southwest of the low level center has continued during the day.

The system has been slow moving over the last 12 hours, however the building mid level ridge to the south of the system will start to steer the system to the west.

======
Dvorak analysis yields a DT of 3.0 using the shear pattern. MET and PAT are 3.0. FT/CI remain at 3.0.

CIMSS ADT at 0540 UTC had a CI of 3.0, NESDIS ADT at 0530 UTC was 3.0. Intensity set to 45 knots.

======
CIMSS winds indicates shear is 10 to 15 knots. TPW shows drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal. Sea surface temperatures are 27-29C.

Shear should remain low to moderate over the system. However, dry air entrainment and marginal water temperatures should limit development. Thus, Caleb is forecast maintain 45 knots during tonight and into Monday before starting to weaken. There is a slight chance of intensifying to category 2 during Sunday night or early Monday morning.

Caleb should weaken during Tuesday with the environment becoming unfavorable due to likely dry air entrainment. However, on Wednesday gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
150. HadesGodWyvern
4:42 AM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
1:52 PM EST March 26 2017
============================

At 1:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two located at 18.2S 151.2E or 475 km east northeast of Townsville and 370 km east northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 4 knots.

Tropical cyclone Debbie has adopted a west southwest track towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system this evening. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely continue on a similar track and intensify further prior to making landfall between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay during this afternoon or evening, and could extend further south to St Lawrence tonight. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Cairns and Ayr on Monday or during Tuesday morning, as well as further inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay as early as Monday morning, before extending further north to Lucinda by the evening.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the center.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 200 mm, with isolated falls of 400 mm, is also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cardwell and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Ayr to St Lawrence including Bowen, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from remaining coastal areas from Cairns to Ayr including Innisfail and Townsville, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
149. HadesGodWyvern
2:45 AM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
10:54 AM EST March 26 2017
============================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two (983 hPa) located at 18.1S 151.4E or 500 km east northeast of Townsville and 395 km east northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical cyclone Debbie is starting to adopt a west-southwest track towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system this evening. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely to intensify further prior to making landfall between Lucinda and the area north of Mackay on Tuesday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay during this afternoon or evening, and could extend further south to St Lawrence tonight. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Cairns and Ayr on Monday or during Tuesday morning, as well as further inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay as early as Monday morning, before extending further north to Lucinda by the evening.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the center.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Major river flooding may also develop over a broad area next week and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cairns and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity:T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 18.6S 150.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 19.0S 149.8E - 85 knots (CAT 3) east of Townsville
48 HRS 19.6S 147.4E - 100 knots (CAT 4) Overland Queensland near Ayr
72 HRS 20.7S 144.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Queensland

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has continued to show improved signs of development on satellite imagery over the last 24 hours. The latest Dvorak intensity analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.7 degree wrap, giving a DT of 3.5. MET is 4.0 and PAT 3.5. FT was based on DT and PT. This analysis is supported by observations from Marion Reef and Lihou Reef and a recent ASCAT pass over the system; the ASCAT pass was also useful for confirming wind radii. SATCON estimates have been suggested a system with an intensity of 65 knots [1-minute mean], which roughly matches the analyzed intensity when converted to a 10-minute mean.

Confidence in the centre position is rated as good based on a combination of imagery from Willis Island radar, animated visible satellite imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Steering has been weak for the past 12 to 18 hours, however CIMSS satellite winds suggest a mid-level ridge building to the south of the system as forecast. This will steer the system to the west-southwest for the next several days until landfall on the Queensland coast, which is currently expected during Tuesday morning, or at earliest overnight Monday. Deterministic numerical weather prediction models all follow this scenario with landfalls occurring broadly between Lucinda and Mackay along the Queensland east coast.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is excellent in all quadrants. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at slightly above the standard rate. This is generally on the high end of the objective guidance spectrum, although HWRF and recent SHIPS guidance are similar. Recent SSMIS microwave pass combined with SHIPS RI guidance suggest a period of rapid intensification is possible in the next 24 hours. Given this evidence, the intensity may be higher than forecast approaching landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Ayr to St Lawrence including Bowen, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from remaining coastal areas from Cairns to Ayr including Innisfail and Townsville, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
148. HadesGodWyvern
2:23 AM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
9:04 AM WST March 26 2017
============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (994 hPa) located at 16.5S 99.7E or 570 km south southeast of Cocos Island and 930 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 2 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.6S 99.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.5S 98.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.4S 96.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 16.6S 93.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located with fair confidence using visible imagery. The previous 1800 UTC and 1200 UTC positions were adjusted slightly further northeast using new microwave imagery. Overnight from 1200 UTC convection weakened, however within the last 3 hours deep convection near the low level center has started to redeveloped.

The system has been slow moving over the last 12 hours, however the building mid level ridge to the south of the system will start to steer the system to the west during today.

======
Dvorak analysis is problematic with a weakening trend over the last 12 hours, however with a more recent burst of convection near the center DT remains at 3.0. MET is 2.5, but PAT adjusted to 3.0 with recent convection. FT/CI remain at 3.0.

CIMSS ADT at 2310 UTC had a CI of 3.0, NESDIS ADT at 2330 UTC was 2.9 [weakening trend]. Intensity set to 40 knots.

======
CIMSS winds indicates shear is 10 to 15 knots. TPW shows drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal. Sea surface temperatures are 27-29C.

Shear should remain low to moderate over the system. However, dry air entrainment and marginal water temperatures should limit development. Thus, Caleb is forecast maintain to 40-45 knots over the remainder of the weekend, with a slight chance of intensifying to category 2.

Caleb should weaken during Tuesday with the environment becoming unfavorable due to likely dry air entrainment. However, on Wednesday gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
147. HadesGodWyvern
9:50 PM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #11
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
7:38 AM EST March 26 2017
============================

At 7:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two located at 18.0S 151.6E, or 525 km east northeast of Townsville and 475 east northeast of Ayr has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as slowly moving.

Tropical cyclone Debbie is starting to adopt a west-southwest track towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system this afternoon. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely to intensify further prior to making landfall between Lucinda and the area north of Mackay on Tuesday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay during this afternoon or evening, and could extend further south to St Lawrence tonight. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Cairns and Ayr on Monday or during Tuesday morning, as well as further inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay as early as Monday morning, before extending further north to Lucinda by the evening.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the center.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Major river flooding may also develop over a broad area next week and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cairns and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Ayr to St Lawrence including Bowen, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for remaining coastal areas from Cairns to Ayr including Innisfail and Townsville, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
146. HadesGodWyvern
8:24 PM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
4:41 AM EST March 26 2017
============================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two (984 hPa) located at 17.9S 151.7E or 535 km east northeast of Townsville and 490 km east northeast of Ayr has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 2 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical cyclone Debbie is expected to adopt a steady west southwest track later this morning and intensify into a category 3 system this afternoon. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely to intensify further prior to making landfall between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay during this afternoon or evening, and could extend further south to St Lawrence on Sunday night. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Cairns and Ayr on Monday, as well as further inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Lucinda and Mackay on Monday afternoon or evening.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the center.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Major river flooding may also develop over a broad area next week and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cairns and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity:T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 18.3S 151.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 18.7S 150.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 19.4S 148.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4) east of Ayr
72 HRS 20.3S 145.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Queensland

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has continued to show improved signs of development on satellite imagery over the last 24 hours. The latest Dvorak intensity analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.6 degree wrap and an additional 0.5 for white band, giving a DT of 3.5. MET and PAT were both 3.5. FT was based on MET as the DT was not completely clear. This analysis was supported by overnight observations from Marion Reef and Lihou Reef, which peaked at 50 and 46 knots respectively [10 minute mean]. SATCON at 1650UTC suggested a system with an intensity of 64 knots [1-minute mean], which roughly matches the analyzed intensity when converted to a 10-minute mean.

Confidence in the center position is rated as good based on a combination of imagery from Willis Island radar, animated infrared satellite imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Steering has been weak for the past 12-18 hours, however CIMSS satellite winds suggest a mid-level ridge building to the south of the system as forecast. This will steer the system to the west-southwest for the next several days until landfall on the Queensland coast, which is currently expected during Tuesday morning, or at earliest overnight Monday. Deterministic numerical weather prediction models all follow this scenario with landfalls occurring broadly between Lucinda and Mackay along the Queensland east coast.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is excellent in all quadrants. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at slightly above the standard rate. This is generally on the high end of the objective guidance spectrum, although HWRF and recent SHIPS guidance are similar. Given the supportive environment, it is likely that there will be periods of more rapid intensification, and the intensity may be higher than forecast. The recent SHIPS guidance supports the potential for rapid intensification, which is suggesting that it is a 30% chance of occurring over the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Ayr to St Lawrence including Bowen, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from remaining coastal areas from Cairns to Ayr including Innisfail and Townsville, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
145. HadesGodWyvern
8:15 PM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
2:35 AM WST March 26 2017
============================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (993 hPa) located at 16.5S 99.6E or 570 km south southeast of Cocos Island and 940 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 2 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.6S 98.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.5S 98.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.4S 96.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 16.4S 95.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located with fair confidence using enhanced infrared imagery.

The building mid level ridge to the south of the system should steer the system to the west. Some model guidance has the system tracking a bit more north, but in this scenario the system is likely to be weak.

============
Dvorak analysis is problamatic with recent burst of convection near the center. MET is 3.5, but PAT adjusted to 3.0, and FT/CI remain at 3.0.

CIMSS ADT at 1740 UTC had a CI of 3.0, NESDIS ADT was 3.0. Intensity set to 45 knots.

========
CIMSS winds indicates shear is 10-20 knots.TPW shows drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal. Sea surface temperatures are 27-29C.

Shear should remain low to moderate over the system. However, dry air entrainment and marginal water temperatures should limit development. Thus, Caleb is forecast maintain to 45 knots over the remainder of the weekend, with a slight chance of intensifying to category 2.

Caleb should weaken during Tuesday and Wednesday with the environment becoming unfavorable due to likely dry air entrainment. However, gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
144. HadesGodWyvern
2:09 PM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
10:44 PM EST March 25 2017
============================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 17.7S 151.9E or 560 km east northeast of Townsville and 520 km east northeast of Ayr has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 2 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
30 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently intensifying, and is now a category 2 cyclone. The system remains slow moving at the present time. It is expected to adopt a steady west southwest track later tonight, which will continue for the next few days. Conditions will remain favorable for the cyclone to develop further before landfall, which will likely be between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay on Sunday afternoon or evening, and could extend further south to St Lawrence on Sunday night. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Cairns and Ayr on Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Lucinda and Mackay on Monday afternoon or evening.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is expected to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the center.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Major river flooding may also develop over a broad area next week and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cairns and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 18.3S 151.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 18.5S 150.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 19.1S 149.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4) northeast of Ayr
72 HRS 19.9S 146.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1) Overland Queensland near Charter Towers

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has been slow moving for the past 12 hours. It has continued to improve in organization, and is currently undergoing a significant convective burst near the center. This has been reflected in the steady increase of peripheral wind observations.

Confidence in the center position is fair to good based on animated infrared satellite imagery, imagery from Willis Island radar, and peripheral observations.

Intensity is analyzed at 55 knots [10 minute mean]. Dvorak analysis using curved bands has averaged DT3.0 over the previous three hours, but this average has increased to DT3.5 during the hour and a half prior to the 1200UTC analysis [0.65-0.7 wrap with +0.5T for the band being white or colder]. MET and PAT are 3.0. Final T is 3.5. Automatic weather stations at Marion Reef [approximately 90 nautical miles south of the system] and at Lihou Reef [approximately 40 nautical miles north] have peaked at 50 and 46 knots respectively [10 minute mean], supporting the analyzed intensity. The intensity is also supported by ADT values. The observations and surrounding convection suggest an asymmetric wind structure at present, which is forecast to become more symmetrical as the system increases its organization. The pressure at Lihou Reef is dropping against the diurnal trend [991.8hPa at 12UTC].

Steering has been weak for the past 12 hours, however CIMSS satellite winds suggest a mid-level ridge building to the south of the system as forecast. This will steer the system to the west southwest for the next several days until landfall on the Queensland coast, expected overnight Monday or Tuesday morning. Deterministic numerical weather prediction models all follow this scenario with landfalls occurring broadly between Lucinda and Mackay on the Queensland coast. MOGREPS and GFS ensembles are consistent with this, although a number of 00Z ECMWF ensemble members have landfalls further north between Cairns and Lucinda.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is excellent in all quadrants. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at slightly above the standard rate. This is generally on the high end of the objective guidance spectrum, although HWRF and recent SHIPS guidance are similar. Given the supportive environment, it is likely that there will be periods of more rapid intensification, and the intensity may be higher than forecast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Ayr to St Lawrence including Bowen, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Island of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from remaining coastal areas from Cairns to Ayr including Innisfail and Townsville, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
143. HadesGodWyvern
1:59 PM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
8:38 PM WST March 25 2017
============================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (993 hPa) located at 16.3S 99.7E or 550 km southeast of Cocos Island and 920 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb has been moving southwest, but is likely to start tracking west for the next few days. Caleb is forecast to weaken over open waters mid next week.

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is not expected to produce gales over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.4S 99.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.6S 98.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.4S 96.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 16.3S 96.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located with fair confidence using enhanced infrared imagery.

The system has been moving southwest, but is likely to start tracking west for the next few days.The building mid level ridge to the south of the system should steer the system to the west. Some model guidance has the system tracking a bit more north, but in this scenario the system is likely to be weak.

Dvorak analysis is problamatic with recent burst of convection near the center. MET is 3.5, but PAT adjusted to 3.0, and FT/CI remain at 3.0. CIMSS ADT at 1110 UTC had a CI of 3.0, NESDIS ADT was 3.0. Intensity set to 45 knots.

CIMSS winds indicates shear is 10 to 20 knots.TPW shows drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal. Sea surface temperatures are 27-29C.

Shear should remain low to moderate over the system. However, dry air entrainment and marginal water temperatures should limit development. Thus, Caleb is forecast maintain to 45 knots over the remainder of the weekend, with a slight chance of intensifying to category 2.

Caleb should weaken during Tuesday and Wednesday with the environment becoming unfavorable due to likely dry air entrainment. However, gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
142. HadesGodWyvern
7:43 AM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY ONE (24U)
5:27 PM EST March 25 2017
============================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category One (992 hPa) located at 17.5S 151.8E or 640 km east of Cairns and 560 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at slowly.

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently a category 1 cyclone, but is continuing to show signs of development. The system has been relatively slow moving during today, but is expected to adopt a steady west southwest track in the next few hours. This general west southwesterly motion is expected to continue for the next few days, bringing the cyclone towards and eventually onto the north Queensland coast. Conditions are expected to favor the continued intensification of the cyclone as it approaches the coast over the weekend and into early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie is expected to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the center.

DESTRUCTIVE winds are likely to develop about the Whitsunday Islands and nearby coast on Sunday evening, and extend to other areas between Ayr and Mackay overnight into Monday morning.

GALES are expected to develop between Ayr and St Lawrence from late Sunday afternoon and evening, and may extend to other coastal areas north to Innisfail during Monday.

Based on the current forecast track, abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront.

Areas of heavy rain are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas into Sunday. A Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cairns and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 18.2S 151.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 18.5S 150.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 19.2S 149.4E - 85 knots (CAT 3) East of Townsville
72 HRS 19.7S 146.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2) Overland Queensland, south of Townsville

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has a very large and impressive circulation featuring spiral banding over much of the Coral Sea, but until recently has shown little development near the center. However, it continues to become slowly organized, and convection has become a little more persistent near the center over the past few hours. This slow central development is fairly typical of very large tropical lows. The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.6 degree wrap, giving a DT of 3.0. MET and PAT were both 3.0. This analysis was supported by observations of sustained gales from Marion Reef.

Confidence in the location of the system is considered good based on animated visible imagery, Willis Island radar and surface observations from Lihou Reef. Pressure observations have declined significantly at Lihou Reef over the last 24 hour with an mean sea level pressure observation of 988.7hPa at 0230 UTC 25/3.

Until recently, the system was being steered to the southeast by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. The system has been fairly slow moving in the past few hours, however there are signs that the expected shift onto a west southwesterly track is occurring, as the upper trough moves further east, and a new mid level ridge builds to the south of the system. The latter is expected to remain the dominant steering mechanism over the next few days, keeping the cyclone on a west southwesterly track and taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. Given such a large circulation, it can be expected that the system will have some effect back onto the surrounding steering systems -- this is part of the reason for the drift to more southerly tracks recently. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there remain some differences in forward speed among the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water. It should also be noted that a significant proportion of EC Ensemble tracks remain to the north of the current cluster of deterministic forecasts, taking the system onto the coast north of Cardwell.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is excellent in all quadrants. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast. The intensity forecast is based on slightly more than a standard rate of intensification; given the favorable environment it is likely that there will be periods of more rapid intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Ayr to St Lawrence of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cairns to Ayr of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
141. HadesGodWyvern
7:27 AM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
2:58 PM WST March 25 2017
============================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (993 hPa) located at 15.7S 100.2E or 535 km southeast of Cocos Island and 830 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is moving to the southwest and should start tracking more west overnight. Caleb is forecast to weaken over open waters mid next week.

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is not expected to produce gales over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 15.9S 99.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.0S 99.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.0S 97.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.8S 96.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located using visible imagery with some confidence in the position.

Dvorak: shear analysis was used for 06Z using visible imagery. The center was located <30 NM from the dense overcast. DT, MET, PAT and CI remain at 3.0. CIMSS ADT at 0540 UTC had a CI of 2.8, NESDIS ADT was 2.6. Intensity set to 40 knots.

CIMSS winds indicates shear at 0300 UTZ is 15 to 20 knots.

TPW shows drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal and sea surface temperatures are 27-29C.

The building mid level ridge to the south of the system should steer the system to the west. Some model guidance has the system tracking east, but that number is decreasing. Some have the system tracking a bit more north but they have weaker systems.

Shear should ease in the short term and then is forecast to remain low. However, dry air entrainment and and marginal water temperatures should limit development. Thus, Caleb is forecast maintain 40-45 knots over the remainder of the weekend, with a slight chance of intensifying to category 2. Further dry air entrainment and and ocean heat content becoming even more unfavorable, the system should weaken during Tuesday and Wednesday, but gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
140. HadesGodWyvern
6:25 AM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:04 PM WST March 25 2017
================================

At 2:00 PM WST a small tropical low was located near 15.7S 121.3E (about 270 km west northwest of Broome) and was moving slowly east at about 5 km/h. The system is forecast to begin moving southwards later today then west to southwestwards during Sunday and Monday, staying off the Western Australia coast. There is only a small chance that the system develops into a tropical cyclone during Sunday or Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================
Sunday: LOW
Monday: LOW
Tuesday: VERY LOW
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
139. HadesGodWyvern
1:48 AM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
Storm Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY ONE (24U)
10:58 AM EST March 25 2017
============================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category One (992 hPa) located at 17.4S 151.9E or 650 km east of Cairns and 580 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

The tropical low over the central Coral Sea has recently developed into Tropical Cyclone Debbie. The system has been moving slowly southwards overnight, but has recently shown signs of shifting onto a west southwest track. This general west southwesterly motion is expected to continue for the next few days, bringing the cyclone towards the north Queensland coast. Conditions are expected to favor the continued intensification of the cyclone as it approaches the coast over the weekend and into early next week.

GALES are not expected to develop about the Queensland east coast today, however they could develop about the coast and islands between Cape Tribulation and St Lawrence, including the Whitsunday Islands, during Sunday.

Based on the current forecast track, abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront.

Areas of heavy rain are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas into Sunday. A Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cooktown and Mackay, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 17.7S 151.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 18.0S 151.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 18.9S 149.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3) East of Townsville
72 HRS 19.5S 146.8E - 85 knots (CAT 3) Overland Queensland south of Townsville

Additional Information
=================
The tropical low has recently developed into Tropical Cyclone Debbie. The system is associated with an impressive, very large circulation, but until recently has shown little development near the center. However, it continues to become slowly organized, particularly near the center, where convection is finally becoming more sustained. The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.6 degree wrap, giving a DT of 3.0. MET and PAT were both 3.0. This analysis was supported by observations of sustained gales from Marion Reef.

Confidence in the location of the system is considered good based on animated visible imagery, Willis Island radar and surface observations from Lihou Reef. Pressure observations have declined significantly at Lihou Reef over the last 24 hour with an mean sea level pressure observation of 991.8hPa at 1800 UTC March 24th.

Until recently, the system was being steered to the southeast by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. In the last few hours, the expected shift onto a west southwesterly track has been evident, as the upper trough moves further east, and a new mid level ridge builds to the south of the system. The latter is expected to remain the dominant steering mechanism over the next few days, keeping the cyclone on a west southwesterly track and taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. Given such a large circulation, it can be expected that the system will have some effect back onto the surrounding steering systems --this is part of the reason for the drift to more southerly tracks recently. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there remain some differences in forward speed among the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water. It should also be noted that a significant proportion of EC Ensemble tracks remain to the north of the current cluster of deterministic forecasts, taking the system onto the coast north of Cardwell.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is excellent in all quadrants. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast. The intensity forecast is based on slightly more than a standard rate of intensification; given the favorable environment it is likely that there will be periods of more rapid intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Tribulation to St Lawrence, including Cairns, Townsville and Mackay of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
138. HadesGodWyvern
1:39 AM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
9:04 AM WST March 25 2017
============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (989 hPa) located at 15.5S 100.5E or 540 km southeast of Cocos Island and 800 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb will continue moving to the south over open waters southeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands for the remainder of today. On Sunday, Caleb should track towards the west and is forecast to weaken over open waters early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is not expected to produce gales over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 15.7S 100.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 15.8S 100.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.5S 98.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.2S 97.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located using visible and microwave imagery over the past 12 hours with some confidence in the position.

Dvorak: Shear analyses were used over the past 6-12 hours with enhanced infrared imagery. The center was located <30 NM from the strong temperature gradient. DTs were 3.0. Trend was D. MET was 3.5, PAT was 3.0. FT/CI set to 3.0. CIMSS ADT at 0000 UTC had a CI of 2.7, NESDIS ADT was 2.3.

Intensity set to 45 knots based on ASCAT pass at 14:30 UTC.

CIMSS winds shows some poleward outflow and upper divergence to the south of Caleb.Wind shear at 0000 UTC was estimated at east around 15 knots.

TPW shows drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal and Sea surface temperatures are 27-29C.

HWRF and GFS model runs at 0000 UTC have an east/southeast track whilst the majority of numerical weather prediction have a general southerly track then westerly track and this is favored. The break in the mid level ridge is producing the southerly movement. As the ridge rebuilds to the south, Caleb will track towards the west.

Caleb is expected to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 3 days with intensity of 40-45 knots. Shear should remain low but dry air and unfavorable water temperatures should limit development. Shear should remain about 10-15 knots. From 27 March the system should start weaken, due to further dry air entrainment and unfavorable oceanic conditions, but gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
137. HadesGodWyvern
10:12 PM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
2:32 AM WST March 25 2017
============================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (992 hPa) located at 15.4S 100.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb will continue moving to the south over open waters southeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands for the remainder of today. On Sunday, Caleb should track towards the west and is forecast to weaken over open waters early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is not expected to produce gales over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.1S 100.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.2S 100.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.1S 98.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.9S 96.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located using visible and microwave imagery over the past 12 hours. Caleb was located over open waters well to the southeast of the Cocos [Keeling] Islands.

Dvorak: Shear analyses were used over the past 6-12 hours with visible and enhanced infrared imagery. The centre was located <30nm from the edge on visible and <30nm from the strong temperature gradient on enhanced infrared. DTs were 3.0. Trend was D-. MET/PAT were 3.0. FT/CI set to 3.0 with intensity of 40 knots.

CIMSS ADT at 1200 UTC had a CI of 2.5, NESDIS ADT was 2.3. The latest SATCON intensity at 0245UTC was 46 knots.

Microwave imagery: AMSR2 pass at 0524 UTC showed the low level circulation center to the east of a band of deep convection. TC_SSMIS at 0935 UTC showed the low level circulation center also to the east of the deep convection, which is limited to the southwest quadrant.

CIMSS winds shows some poleward outflow and upper divergence to the south of Caleb.Wind shear at 1200 UTC was estimated at NE around 20 knots.

ASCAT passes around 0200 UTC only sampled the eastern part of Caleb. This showed northeast to southeast winds up to around 30 knots. ASCAT passes around 1520 UTC showed clockwise winds 30 to 40 knots.

TPW shows drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal and sea surface temperature are 27-29C.

HWRF and GFS model runs at 0000 UTC have an east/southeast track whilst the majority of numerical weather prediction have a general southerly track then westerly track and this is favored. The break in the mid level ridge is producing the southerly movement. As the ridge rebuilds to the south, Caleb will track towards the west.

Caleb is expected to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 3 to 4 days with intensity of 40-45 knots. Shear should drop and remain about 10-15 knots. From 28 March the system should weaken, if not earlier due to dry air and unfavorable oceanic conditions, but gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
136. HadesGodWyvern
10:05 PM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 24U
4:44 AM EST March 25 2017
============================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (992 hPa) located at 17.0S 152.2E or 620 km east northeast of Townsville and 680 km east of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southeast at 2 knots.

The tropical low has moved slowly overnight while steadily developing. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone and adopt a west-southwest track today, bringing it towards the north Queensland coast. Conditions are expected to favor the continued intensification of the system as it approaches the coast over the weekend and into early next week.

GALES are not expected to develop about the Queensland east coast today, however they could develop about the coast and islands between Cape Tribulation and St Lawrence, including the Whitsunday Islands, during Sunday.

Based on the current forecast track, abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront.

Areas of heavy rain are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas into Sunday. A Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cooktown and Mackay, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 17.3S 152.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 17.6S 151.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 18.3S 150.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 19.1S 147.7E - 95 knots (CAT 4) East of Townsville/North of Bowen

Additional Information
=================
The tropical low continues to become slowly organized, with increasing broad curvature evident and transient bursts of curved convection near the center. The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.4 degree wrap, giving a DT of 2.5. MET and PAT were both 2.5. FT based on MET. This analysis was supported by ASCAT-B scatterometer data at 1157UTC, which indicated a broad area of 30 knot winds around the system.

Confidence in the location of the system is considered good based on Willis Island radar imagery and surface observations from Lihou Reef. Pressure observations have declined significantly at Lihou Reef over the last 24 hours with an mean sea level pressure observation of 991.8hPa at 1800UTC.

The system is currently being steered to the south southeast by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. During the weekend, this trough is expected to move further east, and a new mid level ridge should build to the south of the system, leading to a change to a westerly track, taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there are some differences in forward speed among the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is good in all quadrants, and may become further enhanced to the south due to the weak interaction with the upper trough. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast. The intensity forecast is based on slightly more than a standard rate of intensification; given the favorable environment it is likely that there will be periods of more rapid intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Tribulation to St Lawrence including Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
135. HadesGodWyvern
2:09 PM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
8:43 PM WST March 24 2017
============================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (994 hPa) located at 14.9S 100.7E or 515 km southeast of Cocos Island and 730 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb will continue moving to the south over open waters southeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands for the remainder of Friday and Saturday. On Sunday, Caleb should track towards the west and is forecast to weaken over open waters early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is not expected to produce gales over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 15.8S 100.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.2S 100.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.2S 98.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.9S 97.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located using visible and microwave imagery over the past 6 hours. Caleb was located over open waters well to the southeast of the Cocos [Keeling] Islands.

Dvorak: Shear analyses were used over the past 3-6 hours with visible and enhanced infrared imagery. The center was located <30nm from the edge on visible and<30nm from the strong temperature gradient on enhanced infrared. DTs were 3.0. Trend was D-. MET/PAT were 3.0. FT/CI set to 3.0 with intensity of 40 knots.

CIMSS ADT at 1200 UTC had a CI of 2.5, NESDIS ADT was 2.3. The latest SATCON intensity at 0245UTC was 46 knots.

Microwave imagery: AMSR2 pass at 0524 UTC showed the low level circulation center to the east of a band of deep convection. TC_SSMIS at 0935 UTC showed the low level circulation central to the east of the deep convection, which is limited to the southwest quadrant.

CIMSS winds shows some poleward outflow and upper divergence to the south of Caleb.Wind shear at 1200 UTC was estimated at northeast around 20 knots.

ASCAT passes around 0200 UTC only sampled the eastern part of Caleb. This showed northeast to southeast winds up to around 30 knots.

TPW shows drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal and sea surface temperatures are 27-29C.

HWRF and GFS model runs at 0000 UTC have an east/southeast track whilst the majority of numerical weather prediction models have a general southerly track then westerly track and this is favored. The break in the mid level ridge is producing the southerly movement. As the ridge rebuilds to the south, Caleb will track towards the west.

Caleb is expected to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 3 to 4 days with intensity of 40-45 knots. Shear should drop and remain about 10-15 knots. From March 28th the system should weaken, if not earlier due to dry air and unfavorable oceanic conditions, but gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
134. HadesGodWyvern
2:01 PM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 24U
10:46 PM EST March 24 2017
============================

At 9:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 16.9S 151.9E or 650 km east of Cairns and 600 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southeast at 2 knots.

The tropical low has moved south southeast during today and has slowly continued to develop. On Saturday, the low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone and adopt a west-southwest track, bringing it towards the north Queensland coast. Conditions are expected to favor the continued intensification of the system as it approaches the coast over the weekend and early next week.

GALES are not expected along the coast in the next 24 hours.

However, given the expected intensification of the low and the forecast track towards the coast, coastal and island communities between Cape Tribulation and St Lawrence, including the Whitsunday Islands, may begin to be affected by this expected tropical cyclone from Sunday morning.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 17.4S 151.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 17.6S 151.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 18.3S 150.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 19.0S 148.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4) East of Townsville/North of Bowen

Additional Information
=================
Position fair based on Willis Island radar imagery and peripheral surface observations.

The system continues to become slowly organized, with increasing broad curvature evident and transient bursts of curved convection near the center. Dvorak analysis based on a three hourly average of curved bands, averaging to approximately an 0.35 wrap. DT is therefore 2.0. MET agrees. Final T 2.0.

The system is currently being steered to the south southeast by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. During the weekend, this trough is expected to move further east, and a new mid level ridge should build to the south of the system, leading to a change to a westerly track, taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there are some differences in forward speed among the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is good in all quadrants, and may become further enhanced to the south due to the weak interaction with the upper trough. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast. The intensity forecast is based on slightly more than a standard rate of intensification; given the favorable environment it is likely that there will be periods of more rapid intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Tribulation to St Lawrence including Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
133. HadesGodWyvern
7:59 AM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 24U
4:46 PM EST March 24 2017
============================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 16.7S 151.8E or 650 km east of Cairns and 610 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southeast at 7 knots.

The tropical low has been showing signs of strengthening and has been moving towards the south southeast during today. On Saturday, the low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone and adopt a west southwesterly track, bringing it towards the north Queensland coast. Conditions are expected to favor the continued intensification of the system as it approaches the coast over the weekend and early next week.

GALES are not expected along the coast in the next 24 hours.

However, given the expected intensification of the low and the forecast track towards the coast, coastal and island communities between Cape Tribulation and St Lawrence, including the Whitsunday Islands, may begin to be affected by this expected tropical cyclone during Saturday evening or Sunday morning.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 17.3S 151.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 17.6S 151.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 18.3S 150.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 19.0S 148.5E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=================
Position fix is considered fair based on a combination of animated visible imagery, Willis Island radar and peripheral surface observations. The tropical low has been showing signs of development over the past 24 hours. Multiple episodes of deep convection, showing some curvature, have developed near the center in the past 12 to 24 hours, although they have remained somewhat transient in nature. Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band wrapping 0.4 to 0.5 in both Vis and IR imagery, yielding a DT of 2.5. Given the transient nature of this convection though, the FT was biased towards the MET and PT of 2.0.

The low is currently being steered to the south southeast by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. During the weekend, this trough is expected to move further east, and a new mid level ridge should build to the south of the system, leading to a change to a westerly track, taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there are some differences in forward speed among the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is good in all quadrants, and may become further enhanced to the south due to the weak interaction with the upper trough. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast, and it is reasonably likely that the system will have sufficient time over water to reach category 3 status. A period of more rapid intensification cannot be ruled out, which would lead to a higher category system at landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Tribulation to St Lawrence including Cairns, Townsville and Mackay of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
132. HadesGodWyvern
7:45 AM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
3:09 PM WST March 24 2017
============================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (995 hPa) located at 14.5S 100.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb should continue moving to the south over open waters south of Cocos and Christmas Islands. It is forecast to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 15.0S 100.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 15.5S 100.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.3S 100.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 14.9S 100.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb is tracking south over open waters south of the Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located by microwave imagery overnight to the southeast of the deep convection. Curvature of the deep convection on the 2059 UTC microwave image continues to remain weak and cloud tops have warmed over the last several hours.

The intensity of 40 knots is influenced by earlier ASCAT passes [0200-0300 UTC], which showed gales to the north, west and south of the somewhat elongated center. This is a little higher than the Dvorak analysis which yields a FT/CI of 2.5. This is based on a shear pattern with the low level center under 0.5 degrees from the edge of the deep convection. Adjusted MET is 2.5.

Development has been supported by strong low-level forcing from monsoonal northwest flow to the north and southeasterly surge from the sub-tropical high to the south, and a slight decrease in the shear over the system. Counterbalancing this has been a weakening upper-level outflow pattern. Although the system is moving into a more neutral shear environment, it appears drier air is starting to entrain through the northeast flank and the system will become isolated from the monsoon flow in the next 12 to 24 hours. The ocean heat content becomes more marginal south of 15.0S. Gales in southern quadrants are likely to be maintained for several days from the strong southeast synoptic flow as a new sub-tropical ridge builds to the south early next week.

The system is forecast to move in a southerly direction over the coming 48 hours due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid-level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction although models do differ on the extent of the eastward movement before recurving towards the west.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
131. HadesGodWyvern
7:23 AM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
3:01 PM WST March 24 2017
=======================

At 2:00 PM WST, A small tropical low was located near 15.5S 117.9E (about 550 km west northwest of Broome) and moving east at about 25 km/hr. It is moving towards the Kimberley coast, but should slow down tonight before moving south during Saturday and then southwest on Sunday and may develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Saturday: MODERATE
Sunday: MODERATE
Monday: LOW
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
130. HadesGodWyvern
5:32 AM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 24U
12:36 PM EST March 24 2017
============================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (1003 hPa) located at 16.1S 151.4E or 610 km east of Cairns and 600 km northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 8 knots.

The tropical low has been showing signs of strengthening and has been moving towards the south. During Saturday the low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone and adopt a track towards the west, bringing it towards the north Queensland coast. Conditions are expected to favor the continued intensification of the system as it approaches the coast over the weekend.

GALES are not expected along the coast in the next 24 hours.

However, given the expected intensification of the low and the forecast track towards the coast, coastal and island communities between Cape Tribulation and Proserpine, including the Whitsunday Islands, may be affected by this expected tropical cyclone during Saturday evening or Sunday morning.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.8S 151.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 17.1S 151.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 17.5S 149.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 18.2S 147.4E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=================
Position fix is considered fair based on a combination of animated visible imagery, Willis Island radar and peripheral surface observations. The tropical low has been showing signs of development over the past 24 hours. Multiple episodes of deep convection, showing some curvature, have developed near the center in the past 12 to 24 hours, although they have remained somewhat transient in nature. Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band wrapping 0.4 to 0.5 in both Vis and IR imagery, yielding a DT of 2.5. Given the transient nature of this convection though, the FT was biased towards the MET and PT of 2.0.

The low is currently being steered to the south by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. During the weekend, this trough is expected to move further east, and a new mid level ridge should build to the south of the system, leading to a change to a westerly track, taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there are significant differences in forward speed among the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over Sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is unrestricted in all quadrants, and may become enhanced to the south due to the weak interaction with the upper trough. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast, and it is reasonably likely that the system will have sufficient time over water to reach category 3 status. A period of more rapid intensification cannot be ruled out, which would lead to a higher category system at landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Tribulation to Proserpine of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
129. HadesGodWyvern
2:11 AM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
8:54 AM WST March 24 2017
============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (995 hPa) located at 13.8S 101.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb should continue moving to the south southeast over open waters south of Cocos and Christmas Islands. It is forecast to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 14.5S 101.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 14.9S 101.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.1S 101.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 14.8S 100.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb is tracking southeast over open waters south of the Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located by microwave imagery overnight to the southeast of the deep convection. Curvature of the deep convection on the 2059UTC microwave image continues to remain weak and cloud tops have warmed over the last several hours.

The intensity of 40 knots is influenced by earlier ASCAT passes [0200-0300UTC], which showed gales to the north, west and south of the somewhat elongated center. This is a little higher than the Dvorak analysis which yields a FT/CI of 2.5. This is based on a shear pattern with the low level center under 0.75 degrees from the edge of the deep convection. Adjusted MET is 2.5.

Development has been supported by strong low-level forcing from monsoonal northwest flow to the north and southeasterly surge from the sub-tropical high to the south, and a slight decrease in the shear over the system. Counterbalancing this has been a weakening upper-level outflow pattern. Although the system is moving into a more neutral shear environment, it appears drier air is starting to entrain through the northeast flank and the system will become isolated from the monsoon flow in the next 12 to 24 hrs. The ocean heat content becomes more marginal south of 15.0S. Gales in southern quadrants are likely to be maintained for several days from the strong southeast synoptic flow as a new sub-tropical ridge builds to the south early next week.

The system is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction over the coming 48 hours due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid-level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction although models do differ on the extent of the eastward movement before recurving towards the west.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
128. HadesGodWyvern
8:33 PM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
2:26 AM WST March 24 2017
============================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (995 hPa) located at 13.4S 100.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb should continue moving to the south southeast over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands. It is forecast to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 14.2S 101.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 14.9S 101.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.5S 101.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.1S 100.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb is tracking southeast over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located by microwave and extrapolated Visible imagery located near the southeastern edge of the deep convection. While convection has developed closer to the center indicating further development curvature of deep convection has not increased as evident by the 0949UTC microwave image.

The intensity of 40 knots is influenced by earlier ASCAT passes [02-03UTC], which showed gales to the north, west and south of the somewhat elongated center. This is a little higher than the Dvorak analysis which yields a FT/CI of 2.5. This is based on a shear pattern with the low level center under 0.5 degrees from the edge of the deep convection. Adjusted MET is 2.5 based on a developing trend.

Development has been supported by strong low-level forcing from monsoonal NW flow to the north and southeasterly surge from the sub-tropical high to the south, combined with upper-level outflow to the south. This has outweighed the ongoing strong easterly shear [25-30 knots]. The cyclone has some potential to develop in the next 24 hours before becoming disconnected from the monsoon flow and dry air is entrained in the northeast sector. Although the shear should ease, the ocean heat content becomes more marginal south of 15.0S. Gales in southern quadrants are likely to be maintained for several days from the strong southeast synoptic flow as a new sub-tropical ridge builds to the south early next week.

The system is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction over the coming 48 hours due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid-level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction although models.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
127. HadesGodWyvern
2:28 PM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
9:02 PM WST March 23 2017
============================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (995 hPa) located at 13.0S 100.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb should continue moving to the south southeast over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands. It is forecast to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 13.9S 101.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 14.7S 101.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.5S 101.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.3S 100.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb is tracking southeast over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located by microwave and extrapolated Visible imagery located near the southeastern edge of the deep convection. While convection has developed closer to the center indicating further development curvature of deep convection has not increased as evident by the 0949UTC microwave image.

The intensity of 40 knots is influenced by earlier ASCAT passes [0200-0300UTC], which showed gales to the north, west and south of the somewhat elongated center. This is a little higher than the Dvorak analysis which yields a FT/CI of 2.5. This is based on a shear pattern with the low level center under 0.5 degrees from the edge of the deep convection. Adjusted MET is 2.5 based on a developing trend.

Development has been supported by strong low-level forcing from monsoonal NW flow to the north and southeasterly surge from the sub-tropical high to the south, combined with upper-level outflow to the south. This has outweighed the ongoing strong easterly shear [25-30 knots]. The cyclone has some potential to develop in the next 24 hours before becoming disconnected from the monsoon flow and dry air is entrained in the northeast sector. Although the shear should ease, the ocean heat content becomes more marginal south of 15S.0. Gales in southern quadrants are likely to be maintained for several days from the strong southeast synoptic flow as a new sub-tropical ridge builds to the south early next week.

The system is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction over the coming 48 hours due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid-level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction although models.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
126. HadesGodWyvern
7:25 AM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
2:29 PM WST March 23 2017
============================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (997 hPa) located at 12.6S 100.5E or 400 km east of Cocos Island and 610 km west southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb has formed in open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands. Caleb is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction Thursday night and during Friday, away from the islands.

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is expected to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 13.5S 101.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 14.3S 101.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.5S 102.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.7S 102.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb has formed over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located by visible satellite imagery. The low level center is exposed, just to the east of deep convection.

The intensity of 35 knots is based on an ASCAT pass from 0308 UTC, which showed gales to the north, west and south of the center. The low level center itself is elongated, and may consist of multiple centers.

Dvorak analysis yields a DT of 3.0, based on a shear pattern with the low level center just under 0.5 degrees from the edge of the deep convection. MET is 2.5 based on a developing trend, but FT and CI is set to 3.0 based on the combination of reasonably clear-cut cloud features, and the observed ASCAT winds.

The system has been aided by good upper divergence, with outflow evident to the north and south. Shear at this stage is quite high, at around 30 knots near and to the north of the system center. Shear is much lower to the south of the system center.

The system is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction over the coming 48 hours, due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction.

The system may intensify slowly over the next 24 to 48 hours as it moves into an area of lower vertical wind shear. However, ocean heat content becomes more marginal near 15.0S, and after Saturday the system becomes disconnected from the monsoon flow [and associated moisture]. So the expectation is for peak intensity to be reached during Saturday as a 40 to 45 knot system, before a gradual weakening trend commences.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
125. HadesGodWyvern
7:13 AM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:33 PM WST March 23 2017
==================================

At 2:00 PM WST, A tropical low was located overland near 20.6S 118.5E (30 km southwest of Port Hedland) and expected to continue moving south and is not expected to intensify over land. A Severe Weather Warning is current for the system for the Pilbara district [www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/].

Another small tropical low was located near 15.0S 110.3E (about 900 km north northwest of Exmouth). The low has a small chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity overnight Thursday or early Friday morning before weakening later Friday and Saturday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
124. HadesGodWyvern
5:14 AM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
9:46 AM WST March 23 2017
==================================

At 9:00 AM WST, A tropical low was located near 19.6S 118.4E (about 75 km north of Port Hedland). It is not expected to reach tropical cyclone intensity before crossing the Pilbara coast later this morning or early afternoon. However squally thunderstorms and heavy rainfall may occur, mainly on the southern and eastern periphery, during Thursday and early Friday. Please refer to the Severe Weather Warning for the Pilbara district [www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/].

Another small tropical low was located near 14.7S 109.2E (about 1000 km northwest of Exmouth). The low is expected to move eastwards during today and tomorrow then weaken offshore from the Kimberley later Friday and during Saturday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
123. HadesGodWyvern
5:12 AM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:30 PM EST March 23 2017
==================================

A tropical low pressure system is located southeast of the Papua New Guinea mainland. It is forecast to drift southward for the next 24 to 36 hours, before turning more westward towards the tropical Queensland coast late Friday or on Saturday.

Conditions are favorable for this system to develop, and the probability of it forming into a tropical cyclone will steadily increase into the weekend.

This system is likely to make landfall on the north tropical Queensland coast early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Friday: LOW
Saturday: MODERATE
Sunday: HIGH
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
122. HadesGodWyvern
1:45 AM GMT on March 23, 2017
Additional Information for Tropical Low 23U
------------------------------------------------- --
The low has developed well overnight, with deep convection persisting to the west of the low level cyclonic circulation. Dvorak analysis yields a DT of 2.5, based on a CB with curvature averaging 0.5-0.6 degrees over the past 6 hours. MET is 2.0 based on a developing trend, but FT is set to 2.5 due to the fact that the cloud features are clear-cut. The system intensity is 30 knots, but winds on the northern side are reaching 35 knots due to the affects of a monsoon surge.

An ASCAT pass from 1509 UTC showed winds generally 25-30 knots on the southern side, reaching closer to 35 knots on the northern side with the monsoon surge.

The system has been aided by good upper divergence, with outflow evident to the north and south. Shear at this stage is quite high, with 30-40 knots near and to the north of the system centre. Shear is much lower to the south of the system center.

The system is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction over the coming 48 hours, due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction.

The system should gradually intensify over the next 24 to 48 hours as it moves into an area of lower vertical wind shear. However, ocean heat content becomes more marginal near 15.0S, and after Saturday the system becomes disconnected from the monsoon flow [and associated moisture]. So the expectation is for peak intensity to be reached on Saturday as a 40-45 knot system, before a gradual weakening trend commences.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
121. HadesGodWyvern
1:27 AM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 23U
8:48 AM WST March 23 2017
============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (1001 hPa) located at 11.7S 99.7E or 315 km east of Cocos Island and 670 km west southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

A Tropical Low is developing in open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone Thursday night or Friday morning as it drifts to the south southeast, away from the islands.

The system is expected to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Gale Force Winds
==============
180 NM in the northeastern quadrants
180 NM in the northwestern quadrants

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 12.7S 100.4E - 35 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 13.5S 100.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
120. HadesGodWyvern
6:27 AM GMT on March 22, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:10 PM WST March 22 2017
==================================

System #1
---------------

At 9:00 AM WST, A tropical low lies near 17.2S 116.5E (about 410 km north northwest of Port Hedland) and will move south to southeast towards the Pilbara coast today and Thursday. It is not expected to reach tropical cyclone intensity before it crosses the Pilbara coast on Thursday. However squally thunderstorm may occur, mainly on the southern and eastern periphery today and Thursday. During Friday and Saturday the system will weaken as it moves southeast overland.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Thursday: LOW
Friday: VERY LOW
Saturday: VERY LOW

System #2
---------------

A low is developing along the monsoon trough near 10.0S 98.0E northeast of Cocos Islands. The low is expected to develop further on Thursday and Friday with an increased risk of becoming a tropical cyclone during Thursday and Friday. However, it should move towards the southeast over open waters away from Cocos Islands and not impact the islands. The system should then weaken over the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Thursday: MODERATE
Friday: MODERATE
Saturday: MODERATE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
119. HadesGodWyvern
6:24 AM GMT on March 22, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:30 PM EST March 22 2017
==================================

A low pressure system southeast of the Papua New Guinea mainland is forecast to develop over the next few days while drifting slowly southwest. Conditions are expected to become more favorable for tropical cyclone development in the coming days, particularly from Saturday onwards.

At this stage, the likelihood for a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region is moderate - this rating should continue into next week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Thursday: VERY LOW
Friday: LOW
Saturday: MODERATE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
118. WeatherWise
1:47 AM GMT on March 22, 2017
Hi Hades, My favorite shot of the day.

IMG_7824
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
117. HadesGodWyvern
1:24 AM GMT on March 22, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
TROPICAL LOW XX
8:53 AM WST March 22 2017
============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low located at 17.2S 116.5E or about 395 km north of Karratha and 410 km north northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

The low is forecast to track to the south towards the Pilbara coast but is now not expected to reach tropical cyclone intensity by the time it reaches the coast on Thursday.

GALES are no longer expected to affect the Pilbara coast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
The TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is now no longer in effect from Onslow to Wallal Downs of Western Australia
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
116. HadesGodWyvern
1:20 AM GMT on March 22, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST March 22 2017
==========================

Tropical Disturbance 18F has weakened significantly and was located to the south of 25.0S and outside RSMC Nadi Area of Responsibility
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
115. HadesGodWyvern
8:39 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
tropical low may form into a category one cyclone in about 36-48 hours northeast of Karratha and cross Western Australia east of Karratha.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL LOW XX
2:22 AM WST March 22 2017
============================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low located at 16.5S 116.3E or about 475 km north of Karratha and 490 km north northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

The low is likely to move southwards towards the Pilbara coast during Wednesday and has a moderate chance of becoming a tropical cyclone as it approaches the coast on Thursday.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop between Wallal Downs and Karratha during Thursday. GALES may extend to Onslow if the system takes a more westward track.

Heavy rain will develop along the Pilbara coast during Wednesday and extend inland during Thursday and Friday as the system moves inland.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Wallal Downs to Onslow, including Port Hedland and Karratha of Western Australia
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
114. HadesGodWyvern
1:21 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL LOW XX
8:51 PM WST March 21 2017
============================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Low located at 15.8S 116.1E or about 555 km north of Karratha and 570 km north northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southwest at 4 knots.

The low is likely to move southwards towards the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and has a moderate chance of becoming a tropical cyclone as it approaches the coast on Thursday.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop between Port Hedland and Onslow during Thursday. GALES may extend to Wallal Downs if the system takes a more eastward track.

Heavy rain will develop along the Pilbara coast during Wednesday and extend inland during Thursday and Friday as the system moves inland.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Wallal Downs to Onslow, including Port Hedland and Karratha of Western Australia
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
113. HadesGodWyvern
1:16 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET March 21 2017
========================

At northeast of the Mascarenes:
--------------------------------------------

Today, last observed satellite and analysis data show the existence of a broad clockwise circulation east of Agalega. But it doesn't appear totally closed, with little convection. This is likely due to a northeasterly upper constraint, on the edge of the upper ridge, in a rather dry environment. The center is located near 10.8S 59.6E at 1100Z.

Over the next days, the persistent lack of monsoon feeding, is likely to prevent from any significant deepening. Nevertheless, increase in the southern upper divergence, may help the building of a new low inside this circulation. Early next week, the arrival of an active Kelvin wave may enhance the environmental conditions and thus trigger a cyclogenesis. Currently, model guidance do not show a significant signal for the following days.

For the next 5 days, development of a moderate tropical storm is VERY LOW from Thursday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
112. HadesGodWyvern
1:12 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST March 21 2017
============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 18F (1008 hPa) located at 20.2S 176.7W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 infrared/enhanced infrared and peripheral surface observations.

Convection fluctuating with poor organization. System lies south of an upper ridge in a high sheared environment. Circulation extends up to 700HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Global model have picked up the system and move it southeastwards with no further intensification.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is VERY LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
111. HadesGodWyvern
8:21 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW XX
3:12 PM WST March 21 2017
============================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low located at 15.3S 116.8E or about 590 km north northwest of Port Hedland and 600 km north of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 15 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

The low is likely to move towards the south towards the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and has a moderate chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity as it nears the coast on Thursday.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop between Onslow and Wallal during Thursday. Heavy rain is likely near the track.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Wallal to Onslow including Karratha and Port Hedland of Western Australia
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
110. HadesGodWyvern
6:36 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:06 PM WST March 21 2017
===========================

System #1
---------------

A weak tropical low lies near 14.7S 117.2E (about 650 km north northwest of port Hedland). It is forecast to move southwest and then south towards the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Model guidance does not develop it into a tropical cyclone and maintains a tropical low before it crosses the Pilbara coast during Friday.

The environment is not extremely favorable for development into a tropical cyclone. However, if the system does show good development despite the environment there is a chance it could reach category 1 intensity during Friday before landfall.

From Saturday the system will weaken as it moves south overland.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Wednesday: LOW
Thursday: MODERATE
Friday: MODERATE

System #2
---------------

The monsoon trough lies along 12.0S between Cocos Islands and Christmas Island. A tropical low is expected to form in the trough near 12.0S 95.0-100.0E (Cocos Islands vicinity) on Wednesday but should move away to the southeast. The system is expected to develop on Thursday with an increased risk of becoming a tropical cyclone on Friday over open waters.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Wednesday: LOW
Thursday: LOW
Friday: MODERATE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
109. HadesGodWyvern
6:33 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:30 PM EST March 21 2017
==================================

A low pressure system southeast of Papua New Guinea is forecast to develop over the next few days while drifting slowly southwest. While conditions are expected to become more favorable for tropical cyclone development later this week, vast disagreement between models is evident
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
108. HadesGodWyvern
1:11 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
11:00 AM FST March 21 2017
============================

At 23:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 18F (1008 hPa) located at 17.0S 175.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Convection remains persistent over supposed low level circulation center. System lies under an upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Circulation extends up to 700HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Global model have picked up the system and move it southeastwards towards high shear.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW to VERY LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
107. HadesGodWyvern
3:36 PM GMT on March 20, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM FST March 20 2017
============================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 18F (1006 hPa) located at 16.0S 179.5W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 infrared/enhanced infrared and peripheral surface observations.

Convection remains persistent over supposed low level circulation center. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Circulation extends up to 700hpa. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Global model have picked up the system and move it southeastwards towards high shear.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW to VERY LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
106. HadesGodWyvern
3:31 PM GMT on March 20, 2017
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET March 20 2017
==============================

Suspect area northeast of the Mascarenes:
-------------------------------------------------

Neither the 0458UTC and 0553UTC ASCAT swaths, neither the last satellite imagery show any low level clockwise circulation. Associated deep convection is locally strong but remains disorganized and fluctuating. Minimal pressure is estimated at 1010 hPa. ASCAT swath shows a good polerward supply with maximum winds reaching 20 knots This area of convection evolves near the northern edge of the upper level ridge and is currently experiencing a eastward vertical wind shear. From Wednesday, a weak monsoon flow should re-establish and should improve the equatorward low level convergence but at the same time the trade winds are forecast to advect a relatively dry air mass within the environment (according to the MIMIC-TPW2 data of the CIMMS) that is not favorable to sustain deep convection. In the upper levels, the area should be located beneath a narrow ridge which should not remove completely the vertical wind shear but should improve the upper level divergence both equatorward and polerward.

In response to these marginal environmental conditions, ECMWF and GFS models don't deepen significantly any low level clockwise circulation. However the ECMWF ensemble forecast suggests a weak signal of cyclogenesis beyond Wednesday.

For the next 5 days, development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next two days, and the likelihood of development of a moderate tropical storm become low beyond.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
105. HadesGodWyvern
6:27 AM GMT on March 20, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:13 PM WST March 20 2017
===========================

System #1
-------------

A weak tropical low lies near 12.3S 119.4E (about 700 km north northwest of Broome). It is forecast to move slowly west and then south towards the Pilbara coast. While there is some uncertainty in the forecast track, there is a chance the system reaches the central or western Pilbara coast later Thursday or Friday. There is also a chance the system moves slower and tracks to the west before reaching the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Tuesday: LOW
Wednesday: MODERATE
Thursday: HIGH

System #2
-------------

The monsoon trough lies near the Cocos Islands and Christmas Island. A tropical low may form in the trough near Cocos Islands over the next couple days and then remain in the vicinity of Cocos Islands until later Saturday when it starts moving away to the southwest. The system is expected to strengthen over the next few days, with the risk of it developing into a tropical cyclone increasing towards the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Tuesday: VERY LOW
Wednesday: LOW
Thursday: LOW
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
104. HadesGodWyvern
1:24 AM GMT on March 20, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
11:00 AM FST March 20 2017
============================

At 23:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 18F (1007 hPa) located at 14.2S 179.5E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 visible/enhanced infrared and peripheral surface observations.

Convection remains persistent over supposed low level circulation center. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Circulation extends up to 700 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Global model have picked up the system and move it southeastwards towards high shear.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW to VERY LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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