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Tornado Risk Amping Up This Week and Beyond

By: Bob Henson , 4:31 PM GMT on March 20, 2017

Spring began in the Northern Hemisphere at 6:28 am EDT Monday, and the U.S. atmosphere seems to have gotten the memo. A multi-day stretch of severe weather should kick off by late Thursday or Friday. There are hints that the pattern will remain stormy off and on through next week, with upper-level energy expected to remain fairly progressive and the Gulf of Mexico supplying ample moisture.

Widespread damage from Southeast freeze
At least 90 percent of the peach crop in South Carolina (the nation’s top peach producer behind California, with a typical crop value of $90 million) was wiped out by freezing temperatures late last week, according to the state’s agriculture commissioner. The state’s wheat and corn fields also suffered heavy damage, reported WISTV. A less severe freeze in Georgia may have ruined anywhere from 25 to 75 percent of that state’s peach crop. Blueberries across the Southeast also experienced major damage, as summarized by Louisville, KY, broadcast meteorologist John Belski. It dropped to 25°F in Gainesville, FL, on Thursday morning, the coldest reading for so late in the year in more than a century of Gainesville records. Jacksonville’s 28°F was also a record for so late in the year. Update: Total crop losses in South Carolina and Georgia could approach $1 billion, according to an AP report filed Monday afternoon.

Fruit trees that budded and blossomed weeks ahead of schedule took a major hit across the mid-South during last week’s freeze. Temperatures that dipped to 21°F on Wednesday and 22°F on Thursday in Louisville spelled a hasty end to the city’s pear blossoms. “I have never seen the blooms go from white to brown while still on the trees,” Belski said.

In Washington, D.C., a large portion of the renowned Tidal Basin cherry blossoms were toasted by the deep freeze, but some of the less-developed buds (about half of the total, according to the National Park Service) apparently made it through. The survivors are now expected to transition quickly into peak bloom later this week, well ahead of the March 25 opening ceremony of the National Cherry Blossom Festival.


Figure 1. Visitors make their way through a deflating lineup of flash-frozen cherry blossoms in Washington, D.C.’s Tidal Basin on Saturday, March 18, 2017. Cold weather killed half of the blossoms on Washington's famous cherry trees just as they were approaching peak bloom. Image credit: AP Photo/Alex Brandon.

Major pattern shift will usher in severe weather
Marginally severe storms are possible across parts of Indiana and Illinois on Monday and the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, as a spoke of energy rotates around a upper-level low sweeping through eastern Canada. The bigger event will come later this week as the upper-level pattern shifts back toward a Pacific-dominated regime. Several inches of rain and major mountain snows are headed for parts of California, Oregon, and Washington as one storm swings through on Tuesday/Wednesday and a stronger one around Friday/Saturday.

The first upper-level wave in this sequence will reach the Great Plains by late Thursday. Low-level moisture will be rapidly returning from the Gulf, but it’s not yet clear whether enough instability will be on hand to support severe weather. If there is, the focal point would be along a strong dryline expected to be over the High Plains of western KS/OK/TX by late Thursday. A more robust severe threat appears likely for Friday over eastern TX/OK into AR/LA, and on Saturday across parts of MS/AL/GA/FL, as the system marches east into more-unstable air. The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center has outlined both regions with a 15% likelihood of severe weather for Friday and Saturday. I’d expect those odds to rise as the timing and locations become clearer through the week.


Figure 2. The 7-day precipitation forecast issued on Monday morning, March 20, 2017, reflects increased Pacific energy that is expected to generate heavy rain and mountain snow on the U.S. West Coast and fire off one or more rounds of severe weather across the Southern Plains and Southeast. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

The next multi-day round of severe weather will likely erupt with the second wave in the series, in tandem with the gradual establishment of a upper-level trough in the western U.S. Models are struggling with the evolution of these features, although recent runs of both the GFS and ECMWF models tend to agree on a pattern that would favor severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains of TX/OK for at least a day or two early next week.

Wildfire also a threat this week; Boulder dodges a bullet
Fire danger may hit critical levels on Thursday and Friday as high winds and warm, dry air sweep across parts of NM/CO/TX as part of the first central U.S. storm. The landscape is drying quickly in this region following a very warm, dry February and early March. Moderate to severe drought now covers most of eastern CO, western KS, and northern OK, according to last week’s U.S. Drought Monitor.

After setting a record high of 80°F on Saturday, Boulder, CO, had a major scare on Sunday: a fire that erupted just west of town on Saturday night swelled to just over 100 acres before it was largely contained by late Sunday. More than 1000 people were under mandatory evacuation orders, and a pre-evacuation zone extended nearly to downtown. Nationwide, the 2.06 million acres burned in wildfires from January 1 to March 17 is by far the largest amount burned by mid-March in data going back to 2007.


Figure 3. Smoke rises from a wildfire on Sunday morning, March 19, 2017, near the west edge of Boulder, CO. Image credit: Seth Frankel via AP.

Extending severe weather outlooks to three weeks: Year 3
Meteorologists in a multi-institution effort based at the College of DuPage have embarked on their third year of providing generalized guidance on the likelihood of U.S. severe weather up to three weeks in advance. The Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF) are released each Monday, featuring outlooks for week 2 (the week beginning the following Monday) and week 3. For each forecast week, ERTAF indicates whether the likelihood of U.S. tornadoes is above, near, or below the climatological average, together with a confidence rating (high, medium, or low).

The technique is based on atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), which relates to the pace at which momentum imparted by Earth’s spin is being transferred to higher latitudes (see Figure 4 below). Gensini and colleagues employ an AAM-related index called the global wind oscillation (GWO), which is broken into eight phases similar to the daily Madden-Julian oscillation index. When AAM is relatively low, we’re more likely to see upper-level troughs in the U.S. West and ridging in the Southeast, a favorable setup for springtime severe weather.


Figure 4. Angular momentum is transferred from the tropics to midlatitudes as air rotating more quickly at the tropics (because of Earth’s larger diameter) ascends and then descends at midlatitudes, transferring momentum to the surface. Image credit: UCAR/COMET Program.

Gensini and colleague Alan Marinaro (Northern Illinois University) demonstrated the utility of their approach in a 2015 Monthly Weather Review paper. That same year, they introduced the ERTAF, which performed very well: 10 of 16 two-week outlooks, and 10 of 15 three-week outlooks, correctly specified whether activity would be above, below, or near the climatological norm for that week (with “normal” defined as between 75% and 125% of the weekly average number of tornadoes). The forecasts were a bit more challenging in 2016, but 6 of the 13 two-week outlooks and 5 of 12 three-week outlooks were on target, and only 4 of the 25 outlooks erred by more than 50% (e.g., by calling for above-average activity when below-average activity occurred, or vice versa). The ERTAF website includes all of the verification statistics for 2015, 2016, and 2017 thus far, based on SPC preliminary tornado totals.

For the week beginning March 26, ERTAF’s six forecasters are calling for an above-average likelihood of tornadoes with high confidence. “We all agreed week 2 is going to be above average. It was a slam dunk,” Gensini told me. The current week-3 outlook, valid April 2-8, is also for above-average activity but with low confidence. “At that range, we’re using primarily statistical analogs, but you only have the realm of what’s been historically observed. Week 2 is where we can couple the statistical and dynamical approach. In terms of subseasonal forecasting, this is really low-hanging fruit.”


Remembering Matt Parker
The U.S. meteorological enterprise suffered a major blow on Friday with the untimely loss of Matthew Parker (Savannah River National Laboratory), who died in his sleep on Wednesday night. Matt had just begun a one-year term in January as president of the American Meteorological Society. However, he had been heavily involved as president-elect in 2016 and was a key player in many other AMS activities before then. A native of Ohio, Matt spent more than 27 years at DOE’s Savannah River National Laboratory after completing his bachelor’s and master’s degrees at North Carolina State University.

I always enjoyed running into Matt at AMS annual meetings, though we never had a chance to work closely together. "He was not just a colleague but a close friend that has stayed in my family's home," said Dr. Marshall Shepherd, past-president of the AMS and host of The Weather Channel's WxGeeks, in a weather.com article by Jon Erdman. "He was as committed as anyone I know to the weather enterprise and bringing academia, government, and private sector together,” Shepard added.

“This is an enormous loss not just for the AMS family but for the entire scientific community,” said Keith Seitter, AMS Executive Director. “Matt was deeply admired for his commitment to the AMS community. He was a leader and a friend, and we will all miss him tremendously.” 

Succeeding Parker at the helm of AMS for the remainder of this year will be Dr. Roger Wakimoto (National Science Foundation), who was this year’s president-elect for 2018.

We’ll be back with a new post on Tuesday.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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121. Pipejazz
6:47 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
120. Pipejazz
6:45 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 114. barbamz:

Last remnant of North American ice sheet on track to vanish
PhysOrg, March 20, 2017
The last piece of the ice sheet that once blanketed much of North America is doomed to disappear in the next several centuries, says a new study by researchers at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia and the University of Colorado Boulder.
The Barnes Ice Cap, a Delaware-sized feature on Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, is melting at a rapid pace, driven by increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that have elevated Arctic temperatures. The ice cap, while still 500 meters thick, is slated to melt in about 300 years under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions. ...


As a former student of humanities I like to read this:
Critical thinking instruction in humanities reduces belief in pseudoscience
PhysOrg, March 20, 2017 by Matt Shipman
A recent study by North Carolina State University researchers finds that teaching critical thinking skills in a humanities course significantly reduces student beliefs in "pseudoscience" that is unsupported by facts. ...
For this study, the researchers worked with 117 students in three different classes. Fifty-nine students were enrolled in a psychology research methods course, which taught statistics and study design, but did not specifically address critical thinking. The other 58 students were enrolled in one of two courses on historical frauds and mysteries - one of which included honors students, many of whom were majors in science, engineering and mathematics disciplines.
The psychology class served as a control group. ...
The control group students did not change their beliefs - but students in both history courses had lower beliefs in pseudoscience by the end of the semester.
Students in the history course for honors students decreased the most in their pseudoscientific beliefs; on average, student beliefs dropped an entire point on the belief scale for topics covered in class, and by 0.5 points on topics not covered in class. There were similar, but less pronounced, changes in the non-honors course. ...

More see link above.

The one on critical thinking is behind a paywall. One of their references is free to read on google scholar "Fitzgerald, J., & Baird, V. A. (2011). Taking a step back: teaching critical thinking by distinguishing appropriate type of evidence. Political Science and Politics, 44(3), 619–624. Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
119. RitaEvac
4:19 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 110. nrtiwlnvragn:





He was at TWC first, then became NHC director now he's going back to TWC. Probably went to NHC to get that government pension that he'll receive now later in retirement
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
118. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:16 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
117. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:12 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
116. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:12 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 98. RitaEvac:

What's funny about the Oil industry is that, they drill drill drill, then have oversupply that puts them out of work and drives oil prices down into the ground.


This is a classic example of the dog chasing its tail.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
115. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:04 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
114. barbamz
4:03 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Last remnant of North American ice sheet on track to vanish
PhysOrg, March 20, 2017
The last piece of the ice sheet that once blanketed much of North America is doomed to disappear in the next several centuries, says a new study by researchers at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia and the University of Colorado Boulder.
The Barnes Ice Cap, a Delaware-sized feature on Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, is melting at a rapid pace, driven by increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that have elevated Arctic temperatures. The ice cap, while still 500 meters thick, is slated to melt in about 300 years under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions. ...


As a former student of humanities I like to read this:
Critical thinking instruction in humanities reduces belief in pseudoscience
PhysOrg, March 20, 2017 by Matt Shipman
A recent study by North Carolina State University researchers finds that teaching critical thinking skills in a humanities course significantly reduces student beliefs in "pseudoscience" that is unsupported by facts. ...
For this study, the researchers worked with 117 students in three different classes. Fifty-nine students were enrolled in a psychology research methods course, which taught statistics and study design, but did not specifically address critical thinking. The other 58 students were enrolled in one of two courses on historical frauds and mysteries - one of which included honors students, many of whom were majors in science, engineering and mathematics disciplines.
The psychology class served as a control group. ...
The control group students did not change their beliefs - but students in both history courses had lower beliefs in pseudoscience by the end of the semester.
Students in the history course for honors students decreased the most in their pseudoscientific beliefs; on average, student beliefs dropped an entire point on the belief scale for topics covered in class, and by 0.5 points on topics not covered in class. There were similar, but less pronounced, changes in the non-honors course. ...

More see link above.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
113. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:03 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
50 degrees now
high of 54f possible then down to 10f by midnight

spring rollercoaster is in full effect

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
112. barbamz
3:53 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 110. nrtiwlnvragn:


Now, hurricane experts in the WU-comment section: your time has come! Apply for the vacant job at the NHC to tell them how to get their forecasts right, eventually, and when to name a system :-)))
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
111. Uragani
3:37 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
110. nrtiwlnvragn
3:35 PM GMT on March 21, 2017

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
109. ToesInTheWater
3:14 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Loving these helpful answers so far (regarding my post #99). Reasoning about why you'd choose one place, but not another, is very welcome. If you want more time to consider your answer I'll repost the question on the next blog too.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
108. CaneFreeCR
3:13 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 99. ToesInTheWater:

I'm going to miss the gang on here (many of them) when the blog changes. I don't do social media and I really don't like the disqus format. So I'm running out of time to ask my burning question of all you smart folks:
Where would you move in the world, if you could move anywhere and start over, that would be a relatively "safe" and comfortably "protected" place from the extremes of Climate 2.0? If you had maybe 30 years left on earth, let's say.
I really am hoping for serious answers and advice! Thanks
I made my choice for after retirement, though I actually took the steps before. I wanted a relatively safe place from tropical storms, but with a moderate year-around climate; a relatively peaceful place politically, that is also striving to both care for its citizens and its environment and has declared itself opposed to war; and a place with a relatively low cost of living a simple quiet life. For me there is only one place to choose, and that's where I live -- 4000 feet up a mountain not quite 10 degrees North of the Equator, where the climate suits me fine, the vistas are beautiful, and the people are friendly. The only hitch is re-learning the Spanish I last studied briefly over 60 years ago. It's slow progress.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
107. RitaEvac
3:05 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 99. ToesInTheWater:

I'm going to miss the gang on here (many of them) when the blog changes. I don't do social media and I really don't like the disqus format. So I'm running out of time to ask my burning question of all you smart folks:
Where would you move in the world, if you could move anywhere and start over, that would be a relatively "safe" and comfortably "protected" place from the extremes of Climate 2.0? If you had maybe 30 years left on earth, let's say.
I really am hoping for serious answers and advice! Thanks


Permian basin, you'll be protected by government and armed national guard protecting the oil. You'll have all the food and water you'll need paid by Joe and Jane taxpayer. Safe, peaceful, and quite out there (until a rig blows up, etc) Event of any catastrophe pretty low with experts out there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
106. cRRKampen
2:58 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 105. elioe:



Hmmm... some half-educated guesses for this way too general question.

Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and northern portion of Lower Peninsula. Coasts of Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. Cape Verde Islands. Nordic countries. Hokkaido. Ascension Island. South Island of New Zealand. Tasmania. Aleutian and Kuril Islands, Kamchatka Peninsula. Chiloe Island.

And the specific location should be a few meters above current sea level, away from landslide-prone slopes, and away from glaciated volcanoes.

Nordic countries are heating up like crazy. The czar is next door. The area is open to climate refugee tsunamis.
Pity, because Tromsø is my other destination of choice (still is, actually).

The NE of the US, forget it: everyone will go there.

The enemy will be your fellow man in dire straits. That is the calculation to make.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
105. elioe
2:56 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 99. ToesInTheWater:

I'm going to miss the gang on here (many of them) when the blog changes. I don't do social media and I really don't like the disqus format. So I'm running out of time to ask my burning question of all you smart folks:
Where would you move in the world, if you could move anywhere and start over, that would be a relatively "safe" and comfortably "protected" place from the extremes of Climate 2.0? If you had maybe 30 years left on earth, let's say.
I really am hoping for serious answers and advice! Thanks


Hmmm... some half-educated guesses for this way too general question.

Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and northern portion of Lower Peninsula. Coasts of Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. Cape Verde Islands. Nordic countries. Hokkaido. Ascension Island. South Island of New Zealand. Tasmania. Aleutian and Kuril Islands, Kamchatka Peninsula. Chiloe Island.

And the specific location should be a few meters above current sea level, away from landslide-prone slopes, and away from glaciated volcanoes.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
104. cRRKampen
2:55 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Anyway, Paradise 2.0 is around the corner. Please continue this, folks. Please.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
103. cRRKampen
2:53 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 99. ToesInTheWater:

I'm going to miss the gang on here (many of them) when the blog changes. I don't do social media and I really don't like the disqus format. So I'm running out of time to ask my burning question of all you smart folks:
Where would you move in the world, if you could move anywhere and start over, that would be a relatively "safe" and comfortably "protected" place from the extremes of Climate 2.0? If you had maybe 30 years left on earth, let's say.
I really am hoping for serious answers and advice! Thanks

Punta Arenas/Chile.
Might well be 'shall' instead of 'could', eighteen months or sooner.

The enemy is your fellow man in dire straits, and the nukes. You need to calculate from that.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
102. Uragani
2:17 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 99. ToesInTheWater:

I'm going to miss the gang on here (many of them) when the blog changes. I don't do social media and I really don't like the disqus format. So I'm running out of time to ask my burning question of all you smart folks:
Where would you move in the world, if you could move anywhere and start over, that would be a relatively "safe" and comfortably "protected" place from the extremes of Climate 2.0? If you had maybe 30 years left on earth, let's say.
I really am hoping for serious answers and advice! Thanks

Albania
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
101. weathermanwannabe
2:17 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
99. ToesInTheWater
9:50 AM EDT on March 21, 2017

With about 30 years left, you will be relatively safe in any region which is not prone to natural disasters which would have adequate food, electrical/power, a relatively stable government not subject wild economic disasters, and affordable housing and available jobs (if you need or want to work)...........Actually, I would stay in the US away from the coast and away from tornado alley, not in California because of earth quakes, and away from extreme cold in the North and extreme heat further South.....................The Carolina Mountains would be my choice............................ My ideal choice outside of the US would be on a Caribbean Island or Pacific Island but too expensive and hurricanes and sea level rise........................Or I would settle for the Florida Keys until my lawn is under water.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
100. RunningTrauma
2:03 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 99. ToesInTheWater:

I'm going to miss the gang on here (many of them) when the blog changes. I don't do social media and I really don't like the disqus format. So I'm running out of time to ask my burning question of all you smart folks:
Where would you move in the world, if you could move anywhere and start over, that would be a relatively "safe" and comfortably "protected" place from the extremes of Climate 2.0? If you had maybe 30 years left on earth, let's say.
I really am hoping for serious answers and advice! Thanks


I was a long time lurker until recently and this is something me and my soon to be spouse have debated in the last few months. We currently live in southern Michigan but both of us are not winter people at all. Given that we have no kids and both work jobs that are in demand worldwide(healthcare) we want to move.

The answer is really complicated because it's hard to some *any* place not being severely impacted. We both love the idea of Australia and New Zealand, but both have been, and continue to be impacted by climate issues(not to mention the earthquakes/volcanic activity in NZ)

Costa Rica was actually pretty high on the list due to strong conservation efforts there and tropical climate that is generally out of the hurricane zone.

Staying to the US we've looked at places like Greenville, SC and Chattanooga TN as well, but those areas are prone to tornadoes and drought. Pretty much where ever you look in the world there is some trade off.

I'd love to see other answers as well.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
99. ToesInTheWater
1:50 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
I'm going to miss the gang on here (many of them) when the blog changes. I don't do social media and I really don't like the disqus format. So I'm running out of time to ask my burning question of all you smart folks:
Where would you move in the world, if you could move anywhere and start over, that would be a relatively "safe" and comfortably "protected" place from the extremes of Climate 2.0? If you had maybe 30 years left on earth, let's say.
I really am hoping for serious answers and advice! Thanks
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
98. RitaEvac
1:40 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
What's funny about the Oil industry is that, they drill drill drill, then have oversupply that puts them out of work and drives oil prices down into the ground.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
97. ChiThom
1:34 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 61. islander101010:

r.i.p forecaster Parker. sad to see younger folks than me dying. happening a lot nowadays


That's because everyone is younger than you, now. :-J
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
96. RitaEvac
1:26 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
OIL SURGE

The Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico has emerged as the new poster boy of the U.S.
Some are even predicting this hotbed of shale activity could eventually surpass the colossal Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia as the world's biggest oilfield.

"People just don't seem to realize how big the Permian is," Sheffield, known as the "King of the Permian"


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
95. cRRKampen
1:24 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 86. wunderkidcayman:



maybe, maybe not
maybe its not me the bout of silence will coming from
we will see

as I said at this point in time I don't see anything really standing out that says we will have an El Nino this year

that may change as we go further on in the year I doubt it but still we wait and see

Well, strange developments presently.

Also, Niño is defined as anomaly from a baseline. Holding a baseline at say 1951-1980 values (to charge the issue) implies virtually constant 'El Niño' by this time or very soon, and no La Niña anymore.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
94. weathermanwannabe
1:14 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Here is a portion of an October Sun Sentinel article on the Ft. Lauderdale flooding issue: this is science "fact"..................And the pic from the city section of Ft. Lauderdale just to the East of Downtown:

Olas on Las Olas

King tides, the seasonal reminder that much of South Florida is a coastal community, poured salt water into streets, front yards and even some homes in parts of Broward County on Sunday, a preview of two more soggy days to come.

"It's not the end of the world, but it is a pain," said Larry Danielle, 38, as he stacked sandbags at the end of the driveway at his home in the 2500 block of Hibiscus Place in Fort Lauderdale's Las Olas Isles neighborhood.

The cause of the higher-than-usual tides is a combination of meteorological and astronomical factors, including a full moon, a remnant swell from Hurricane Nicole — a large storm moving slowly over the North Atlantic — and an onshore wind flow, according to forecasters at the National Weather Service in Miami.

Water was several inches deep along Las Olas Boulevard, where sandbags were piled in the doorways of several businesses, and signs urged drivers to proceed slowly.

In front of Danielle's house, where flowing water was about a foot deep at 9:30 a.m. Sunday, was a "No wake zone" sign.

"I have learned to live with this, but I would rather not live with it," said Danielle, who designs flight simulators.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
93. barbamz
1:11 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Germany's national weather service DWD yesterday published a guide for reports about the current flooding in Peru and its present coastal El Nino in respect to the question whether a full blown El Nino is about to develop (LINK to the pdf in German with some maps). Down bottom: It's possible but yet very uncertain what will happen in autumn:

Attempt of a translation of some of the lines:
... it's possible that an El Niño develops from near-coastal warming, and indeed the ensemble prediction in the median (a means more robust against outliers) of the seasonal prediction model of the DWD forecasts an exceedance of the limit of an anomaly greater than 0.5 Kelvin, currently from May 2017 on, thus the setting of an El Niño event in autumn 2017 and thus usually also in the winter 2017/2018. By October 2017, however, the uncertainty remains very large, from ENSO-neutral (no significant anomaly) up to a fulminant El Niño with an anomaly well above 2 degrees Kelvin.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
92. weathermanwannabe
1:06 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
The bigger related issue for South Florida is salt water intrusion into the Biscayne Aquifer; it is already well documented that salt water is currently flowing into it several miles inland into Central Fort Lauderdale and there is high tide flooding, which I have seen, along AIA next to Ft. Lauderdale Beach on occasion. Point being that the canal steel gates can only do so much, and not much, in terms of salt water seeping through the porous underground limestone under South Florida during those now more frequent high tide events....................They will probably run out of local fresh water, in the shorter term, before the coast is a few feet underwater in several decades unless dams and seawalls are erected.
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91. isothunder67
12:57 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 84. StormTrackerScott:



South Beach floods almost every high tide. I know because I've seen it happen first hand. I was down there a few months back and couldn't believe the flooding that occurs down there during high tide.


I guess they were REALLY serious about Florida being underwater around 2050 .-.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
90. wunderkidcayman
12:43 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 87. weathermanwannabe:

Less science, more bombs, personal and business ties to Russia, and we are paying for the Wall (not Mexico)..........Off to a great start..................


lol you had to know that was gonna happen it was never gonna be great
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
89. barbamz
12:43 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
How Americans Think About Climate Change, in Six Maps
New York Times, MARCH 21, 2017
Americans overwhelmingly believe that global warming is happening, and that carbon emissions should be scaled back. But fewer are sure that the changes will harm them personally. New data released by Yale researchers gives the most detailed view yet of public opinion on global warming. ...
More see link above or visit directly the site of Yale: LINK
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
88. wunderkidcayman
12:41 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Also one last thng you want cold hose shoe structure around materializing El-Nino

hell here is this for ya

2011




same hose shoe structure and El Nino did not happen only a couple months later back to full-fledged La Nina

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
87. weathermanwannabe
12:28 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Less science, more bombs, personal and business ties to Russia, and we are paying for the Wall (not Mexico)..........Off to a "great" start..................
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
86. wunderkidcayman
12:21 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 82. cRRKampen:


I sense a loooooong bout of silence coming up from you as this year evolves.


maybe, maybe not
maybe its not me the bout of silence will coming from
we will see

as I said at this point in time I don't see anything really standing out that says we will have an El Nino this year

that may change as we go further on in the year I doubt it but still we wait and see
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
85. wunderkidcayman
12:15 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 73. StormTrackerScott:



I did and its here. I said we would have another El-Nino right after the 2015/2016 event and the reason I gave was because of the PDO being so positive. So I was right.


but we didn't right after the 15/16 event we had a La Nina so you were wrong

Quoting 75. StormTrackerScott:



That's an average for the week last week. Its a new week and the values have only risen past 3C just in the last couple of days so expect the CPC next Monday to go higher than 2.6C for Nino 1&2. Again Wunderkid whether you believe this event is coming or not all you have to do is look at this sea surface structure below. We have a seen major changes over the last few weeks across the Pacific.

You are now beginning to see a cool horse shore around the materializing El-Nino. Also the MDR is not looking good for prospects of a active hurricane season.




look the data from tropicaltidbits updates every 0,6,12,18Z look that does not give you a clear idea whats really gong on every 6hr to day changes will always go up and down and whats needed is a smooth clear cut data which is better off getting at a 5-7 day period rather than 6hr-1 day that's why CPC uses that

anyway you go continue on with El Nino is coming one day you will get it right
at this point in time I don't see it happening this year but we will see
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
84. StormTrackerScott
12:11 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 81. Xandra:

Sea level rise: Miami and Atlantic City fight to stay above water – video

Sea levels are rising. For many cities on the the eastern shores of the United States, the problem is existential. We take a look at how Miami and Atlantic City are tackling climate change, and the challenges they face under a skeptical Trump administration that plans to cut funding for environmental programs




South Beach floods almost every high tide. I know because I've seen it happen first hand. I was down there a few months back and couldn't believe the flooding that occurs down there during high tide.
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83. weathermanwannabe
12:10 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
And an overnight post from Science Mag as to the pending cuts in science; the intelligencia and academics are usually the first to go in a populist political climate driven by isolationism. However, given the dangers and challenges related to climate change, and the ongoing need for kids in the US pursue careers in the sciences so we can compete in the world as well as understand what it actually going on, this is the worst thing that you could do at this time:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/03/rese arch-afterthought-first-trump-budget


The 2018 budget proposal that President Donald Trump unveiled last week confirms two things that U.S. scientists have long suspected: The new president is no fan of research, and his administration has no overarching strategy for funding science.

Deep proposed cuts to research at the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Department of Energy (DOE), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) offer evidence that Trump doesn’t see science—of any kind—as a spending priority. And along with neglect there’s indifference. The budget blueprint says nothing about spending at the National Science Foundation (NSF), for example. It’s also silent on the research portfolios of the National Institute of Standards and Technology and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, although science advocates are not sanguine about their prospects.

“We are disheartened and significantly concerned by the proposal, which clearly devalues science and research,” says Christine McEntee, who leads the American Geophysical Union in Washington, D.C. “If enacted, [it] would be a step backward for scientific progress.”

“The unprecedented budget cuts … would cripple the nation’s ability to support and deliver the important biomedical research that provides hope to all,” warns Darrell G. Kirch, head of the Association of American Medical Colleges in Washington, D.C.

The plan covers $1.1 trillion in discretionary spending. (The more detailed May budget will also cover changes to mandatory social welfare programs and interest payments on the national debt.) The discretionary pot is now roughly split between defense and nondefense agencies. But Trump wants to hike spending on defense and national security by 10%, and pay for that $54 billion increase by cutting spending at all other agencies. To get there, Trump would cut nearly 20% at NIH and DOE science programs, and make even larger research reductions at EPA and NOAA. In contrast, NASA overall would receive only a 1% cut, although its earth sciences division would shrink by 6%.


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82. cRRKampen
12:07 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 70. wunderkidcayman:



lol this is coming from someone who said last year would have an El Nino

give it up

look this year its gonna be either La Nina or Neutral this year and by a stroke of 1 in 65 or so luck we do get an El Nino it will be weak and likely a Modoki El Nino

I sense a loooooong bout of silence coming up from you as this year evolves.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
81. Xandra
12:04 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Sea level rise: Miami and Atlantic City fight to stay above water – video

Sea levels are rising. For many cities on the the eastern shores of the United States, the problem is existential. We take a look at how Miami and Atlantic City are tackling climate change, and the challenges they face under a skeptical Trump administration that plans to cut funding for environmental programs

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
80. weathermanwannabe
12:03 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
And the inbound jet from the Pacific and Convective Outlook for today; wait until the jet moves across Conus later this week before we can determine when/where the severe weather will ramp up going into the weekend:


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79. StormTrackerScott
12:02 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Here is an illustration of what is driving the disaster in Peru.


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78. wunderkidcayman
12:01 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
also back in 2011 during the Neutral Period the models including the CFS the BOM POAMA and yes even the trusty Euro ECMWF showed 2011 going into a El Nino which didn't happen and we went back into the La Nina instead and at the same time frame the big issue was Spring Predictability Barrier and this might just be the exact reason the models now are showing the same
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
77. weathermanwannabe
12:00 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Good Morning Friends; here is the Conus forecast for today and current look:

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76. StormTrackerScott
11:59 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
The Piura region, a weather station in Morropón recorded 43 inches of rain since the start of 2017. At this point of the year — early March — Morropón’s average rainfall is about 4 inches.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
75. StormTrackerScott
11:55 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 71. wunderkidcayman:



uh huh... sure...

using CPC 1+2 is 2.6C


That's an average for the week last week. Its a new week and the values have only risen past 3C just in the last couple of days so expect the CPC next Monday to go higher than 2.6C for Nino 1&2. Again Wunderkid whether you believe this event is coming or not all you have to do is look at this sea surface structure below. We have a seen major changes over the last few weeks across the Pacific.

You are now beginning to see a cool horse shore around the materializing El-Nino. Also the MDR is not looking good for prospects of a active hurricane season.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
74. barbamz
11:54 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Good morning, folks.
Another flashflood (huaico) yesterday afternoon in the town of Viru in Peru. It was the seventh that hit this town/region (report in Spanish):


huaico golpeo de forma devastadora en Viru 20/03/2017

Aerial view of the inundated city of Trujillo (some miles north of Viru) which saw its stongest "huaico" (so far) on Sunday (it was its sixth in just a week), damaging especially the historic center (some of many videos of this flashflood: LINK, LINK):


ESTUDIANTE DE TRUJILLO GRABA CON SU DRON LA INUNDACION
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
73. StormTrackerScott
11:48 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 70. wunderkidcayman:



lol this is coming from someone who said last year would have an El Nino

give it up

look this year its gonna be either La Nina or Neutral this year and by a stroke of 1 in 65 or so luck we do get an El Nino it will be weak and likely a Modoki El Nino


I did and its here. I said we would have another El-Nino right after the 2015/2016 event and the reason I gave was because of the PDO being so positive. So I was right.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
72. StormTrackerScott
11:47 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Folks over 70,000 homes destroyed in Peru from floods which has affected over a half million people. @Bob Henson you can add this as number 2 for Billion Dollar disasters so far this year and this event in Peru is far from over. Look at this video below of a woman walking out of a mudslide!

Capital Weather Gang‏Verified account @capitalweather 20h20 hours ago

Incredibly, this woman crawled out of a mudslide in Peru last week. Torrential rain is expected to continue.Link
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71. wunderkidcayman
11:38 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 68. StormTrackerScott:



Look at this Robert. Nino 1&2 now over 3C!




uh huh... sure...

using CPC 1+2 is 2.6C
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