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Aletta No Threat To Land; Bud Likely Within Days

Posted by: MAweatherboy1, 9:28 PM GMT on May 15, 2012

Today, May 15, marks the first day of the 2012 Eastern North Pacifc Hurricane Season. For my thoughts on the season as a whole you can look at my last blog entry. Yesterday saw the formation of TD One E, a day ahead of the start of the season. The depression strengthened some and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Aletta early on May 15 (UTC) meaning it was not named in the preseason. According to the National Hurricane Center Aletta is located about 810 miles south of the tip of Baja California. She is moving slowly westward at around 10 mph. The storms's current intensity is 45 mph with a pressure of 1003 mb. Aletta is probably peaking in intensity right now if she has not done so already. There is a significant amount of dry air to the south, west, and north of Aletta. Also, a powerful upper level trough will soon pass north of Aletta, greatly increasing wind shear over the system. Finally, Aletta is also heading for cooler waters. These three factors will combine to cause Aletta to disipate. The NHC is forecasting the storm to be dissipated by 72 hours. I think it will occur sooner than that because of how many factors will soon be working against Aletta. Also, Aletta is a very small system so this will make it difficult for her to resist the influences of shear and dry air.

This image reveals that dry air and shear seems to be already taking their toll on the system's west edge. The storm's convective pattern remains quite good overall though.

This image reveals the significant amount of dry air surrounding Aletta.

Elsewhere
An area of disturbed weather several hundred miles from shore in the East Pac is being monitored for development. The NHC is giving this system a 10% chance of development within 48 hours, however beyond that time it appears likely that this system will become a tropical storm and be named Bud. Several models have shown this with the ECMWF being the most aggresive. The GFS model has also shown the system but to a lesser degree of intensity. Due to the poor handling of Aletta by the ECMWF and the excellent handling of the storm by the GFS, I do not see this becoming a major storm. I think it is likely to peak as a mid strength tropical storm with 55-60mph winds. I will likely have another update this week.

Regarding my "blogging schedule" for hurricane season, there really isn't one. I will post entries when time allows me to and when there is interesting tropical weather to discuss. I will blog on tropical activity in the Atlantic, East Pacific, and West Pacifc.

Thank you as always for reading and enjoy the rest of your week!

Updated: 9:29 PM GMT on May 15, 2012

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East Pacifc Hurricane Season Preview

Posted by: MAweatherboy1, 11:08 PM GMT on May 02, 2012

As we all know, it's getting to be that time of year... In less than a month we will begin the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season! However we are less than 2 weeks away from the start of the 2012 East Pacific Hurricane Season. The main factor that will drive the Atlantic Season this year will also be the driving force in the East Pacifc, and that is of course the ongoing transition from La Nina conditions into neutral conditions and likely heading for at least weak El...

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Thoughts on the CSU Hurricane Season Forecast

Posted by: MAweatherboy1, 9:02 PM GMT on April 04, 2012

As you probably know, the annual April hurricane season prediction was released by Colorado State University (CSU) today. Their forecast numbers for the season are:*10 named storms*4 hurricanes*2 major hurricanesClearly these numbers come as a major disappointment for many of us storm lovers. However, after looking through CSU's forecast, I've found a few rays of hope that could make this season more active than they have indicated.*First and probably most importa...

Updated: 9:46 PM GMT on April 04, 2012

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Tropical Storm Pakhar Threatens Vietnam

Posted by: MAweatherboy1, 7:50 PM GMT on March 29, 2012

After a long quiet stretch, the tropics have finally turned active, at least in the West Pacific, as the basin now has its first named storm of the year, Pakhar. Pakhar is currently crawling west-northwestward in the South China Sea with an intenisty estimated at 45 knots by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). This image highlights Pakhar's excellent banding features, and possibly a forming eye.Pakhar's slow movement prevents an obvious problems for countries...

Updated: 8:32 PM GMT on March 29, 2012

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Lua a Threat to Australia

Posted by: MAweatherboy1, 6:07 PM GMT on March 14, 2012

It's been a little while since my last blog, as the weather has been quite tranquil around the world. The tropics have come back to life in the Southern Hemisphere however with Tropical Cyclone Lua. Lua is currently located northwest of Australia with maximum sustained winds estimated at 50 knots by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Lua is meandering right now, with its latest movement listed as NE at 5 mph. Lua is expected to change dircetion and turn more SE, ...

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About MAweatherboy1

I am an aspiring meteorologist who enjoys tracking all kinds of weather from my home in Massachusetts

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