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Events de Fuego

By: Skyepony , 2:46 PM GMT on February 27, 2017

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Fuego Events

Wunderblogs are getting Fuegoed, please refer to the blue banner at the top of the page. Feel free to discuss in the short lived comment section below.

Phish - Fuego (HD) 1/2/15 - Miami, FL
Andrew Grey
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Eclipse Anillo de Fuego~ For those that didn't make it to the Southern Hemisphere for the spectacular annual eclipse with it's "Ring of Fire" on Sunday February 26, 2017, here is the video.

Guatemala's Volcano Fuego erupted again on Saturday Feb 25, 2017. Plumes of ash rained down on nearby communities. David de Leon, spokesman for the National Coordinator for Disaster Reduction, said the volcanic activity later stabilized and fell within the normal range after an eruptive phase that lasted 13 hours. The rumbling 3,763-meter-high (12,345-foot) volcano registered a powerful eruption from 11:28 pm Friday (0528 GMT Saturday). In the afternoon, explosions generated ash columns 4,500 meters above sea level, 500 meters less than in the morning. The longest of three lava flows so far stretched 1,600 meters. Originally forecast that the plume might reach Guatemala City, it doesn't appear to have. There is some impressive explosions in the video.



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Tropics are quiet.

98S is gone but wrote a quick tropical blog here. Beginning my blog migration to somewhere else...

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A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
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Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..

VAB in Fog (Skyepony)
Fog was burning off as we rode bicycles toward it at the Tour De Kennedy Space Center. Starting point was the Visitor's Center Parking Lot.
VAB in Fog
Skyepony at Tour De KSC (Skyepony)
Completed about 24 miles in 4 hours.
Skyepony at Tour De KSC
Launch Pad 39B (Skyepony)
Launch Pad 39B
Hurricane Matthew Beach Erosion (Skyepony)
Hurricane Matthew Beach Erosion
A Bad Sign (Skyepony)
There was a lot of signs still down from Hurricane Matthew. Many like this one the base was twisted and broken.
A Bad Sign
Launch Tower (Skyepony)
Launch Tower
VAB (Skyepony)
VAB from the backside. That is the LCC on the left. Crawler stone road on the right.
VAB
Inspiration (Skyepony)
Shuttle Model
Inspiration
Shuttle Landing Facility (Skyepony)
From the south end of the Runway
Shuttle Landing Facility
Rocket Garden (Skyepony)
Rocket Garden

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163. aquak9
9:18 AM GMT on March 29, 2017
we've got nearly a thousand followers on the disqus site, give or take-

you CAN create a new user name, and keep it private there

I sure will miss this, and everyone here though
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
162. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:18 AM GMT on March 29, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST March 29 2017
=======================================

At 1:00 PM WST, Tropical Low Caleb (23U) lies well southwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands, should track steadily westwards over next couple days and move west of 90E on Thursday or early Friday. While strong winds are possible on the southern side of the system, it is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:40 PM EST March 29 2017
=======================================

At 1:00, EST Tropical Low Debbie (24U) is approximately 100 km west of Moranbah. It will continue to move inland towards southeast Queensland and move offshore and away from the Queensland coast. It is not expected to redevelop as a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
161. Daisyworld
6:29 AM GMT on March 29, 2017
Skye: Be sure to post the link to your new blog, wherever it may land.

Take care everyone! It's been nice blogging with you all here at WU.

Quoting 159. Skyepony:

So did eventually test and realize how bad the default comment system on that other site I'm moving this blog to is. Looked into it more and for a little personal blog, may can get that ad free with disqus comments. Don't be surprised if moves it all again in the summer when it gets too hot to play outside and there is time for making it all how I'd like it either...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
160. guygee
2:26 AM GMT on March 29, 2017
Hey Skye - Just wanted to bid your WU blog a fond but wistful farewell. I am very appreciative of your enthusiastic and informative postings here, over these years I've been a regular reader and occasional poster. Not fond of Disqus for privacy reasons, and Weebly may not be the answer either due to limitations, but I will bookmark everything to keep track and hope for a better outcome. Cheers!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
159. Skyepony
9:37 PM GMT on March 28, 2017
So did eventually test and realize how bad the default comment system on that other site I'm moving this blog to is. Looked into it more and for a little personal blog, may can get that ad free with disqus comments. Don't be surprised if moves it all again in the summer when it gets too hot to play outside and there is time for making it all how I'd like it either.

Meanwhile, in the Keys...
Barbie Wilson%u200F @barbiedoll0087 3h3 hours ago
@NWSKeyWest now 5! Wow! #waterspout #geigerkey #flwx @weatherchannel @Anaridis



Sadly two storm chasers died in a car wreck in Texas today. The names of whom have not been yet made public.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
158. RobDaHood
2:28 AM GMT on March 28, 2017
Thanks for the updates Skye and Hades.
Hi Max!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
157. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:41 AM GMT on March 28, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #42
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY FOUR (24U)
11:01 AM EST March 28 2017
============================

At 11:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Four (943 hPa) located at 20.1S 148.8E or 65 km east of Bowen and 35 km north northwest of Hamilton Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
45 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
120 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
105 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
105 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is currently a category 4 cyclone. While small temporary variations in the track have been observed, as happens with all cyclones, the system is still forecast to move slowly west-southwest and make landfall on the mainland between Bowen and Airlie Beach around midday, or early this afternoon.

Recent significant wind gust observations include:

- 263 km/h at Hamilton Island airport at 10:25am.

- 139 km/h at Proserpine Airport 10:22 am

- 120 km/h at Bowen Airport at 10:41 am


The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Debbie is now starting to impact the Whitsunday Islands and the nearby mainland. The center of the system is forecast to cross the mainland coast between Bowen and Airlie Beach early this afternoon with wind gusts potentially to 270 km/h near the center.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h are occurring about the coast and islands between about Bowen and Midge Point, including Proserpine, and will extend further along the coast to areas between Ayr and Sarina during this morning or afternoon. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further northwest along the coast to Townsville and to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville, Charters Towers, and Mount Coolon during the day today. It is possible that these DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further south along the coast to St Lawrence today.

GALES are now occurring about the coast and islands between about Cape Bowling Green and Sarina. These GALES are expected to extend to the remaining coastal and island areas between Townsville and St Lawrence later today. GALES could potentially extend further north to Lucinda and further inland to locations such as Charters Towers, Pentland, Mount Coolon, and Moranbah this afternoon and tonight.

Residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide, with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding have developed around the Central Coast and Whitsundays district. These heavy rain areas are expected to spread to other parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas today. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 150-250 mm, with isolated event totals over 500 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area this week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Rollingstone and Gladstone, extending inland to the Upper Flinders, Thomson and Barcoo catchments.

Dvorak Intensity:T5.5/T5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 20.6S 147.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 21.4S 146.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 24.0S 147.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Severe tropical cyclone Debbie continues to exhibits a clear eye on satellite and radar imagery. recent observations include a 10-minute mean wind of 103 knots at Hamilton Island Airport, and wind gusts of 262 km/h at Hamilton Island, 139 km/h at Proserpine airport and 119 km/h at Bowen. Other non-official observations include a 247 km/h at Airlie Beach. These peak winds appeared to coincide with the passage of an eyewall mesovortex evident in radar and visible imagery. These observations have led to setting the current intensity at 100 knots. Latest Dvorak analysis was based on an eye pattern with a LG surround, an addition of 0.5 for a B surround and an OW eye, yielding a DT of 5.5. MET and PAT were 5.5 and 5.5 respectively. The FT and CI were based on a three-hour average DT of 5.5.

Destructive gusts now being reported from the Bowen area. Observations of gales continue to be reported from south of Mackay; in the past few hours, wind speeds in the lower levels sampled by the wind profiler at the Mackay racecourse have leveled off or even decreased a little.

Significant sea level anomalies are now starting to be recorded on the DSITI storm tide monitoring gauges at Shute Harbour, Laguna Quays and Mackay with positive anomalies of approximately 1.0 to 1.5 meters and HAT exceed at Shute Harbour and Laguna Quays.

Confidence in the centre position is rated as good based on merged radar imagery, primarily from the Bowen and Mackay radars along the Queensland east coast.

The mid-level ridge to the south of the system has become the primary steering influence. Mean motion has been to the west-southwest at about 4 knots [8 km/h] during the past 12 hours; however superimposed on this track has been shorter term variations in direction and speed associated with internal rearrangements of the cyclone structure. The system is most likely to remain on a general slow west southwest track for the next 6 to 12 hours through landfall on the Queensland coast and further inland, with a subsequent curve to the south on Wednesday as the ridge weakens and an upper trough develops through southern Australia. There is still high confidence in this track.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. After landfall the system should initially weaken at a rate somewhat faster than the standard decay model due to enhanced topography along the post-landfall track. However, as it tracks inland and curves onto a southerly and eventually a south-southeasterly track during Wednesday and Thursday, interaction with the upper level trough over southern Australia may actually lead to an extratropical transition and possibly a slight re-strengthening of the system.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lucinda to St Lawrence, including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, extending inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, Moranbah, and Pentland of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
156. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:34 PM GMT on March 27, 2017
weird I did send the mail just a while ago
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
155. Skyepony
8:43 PM GMT on March 27, 2017
Max~ I'd left this for him to send to you..

Quickest and easiest for Max & still be communal would be for him to make his own channel on disqus and host it there. That way he can keep the comments open (though we could on seeds of WU) and the post wouldn't get buried by other posts in the channel. And if he buried it a little like he did here blogging about storms it wouldn't be that far down and he could maybe pin it to the top of his channel. Have him post a link at Seeds of WU too, they would pin it on the side of the community there for everyone else to get in on (like others that have started channels there). This way he could still gather them off Cat6 comments or have people post them in his channel (maybe even seeds of WU). It would probably be alot easier than years past because much of it would come up in his disqus notifications if it was in response to his comments on Cat6, Seeds of WU or his channel. He may want to wait til right after the comment system switches over. That gives nearly 2 full months before season and a clearer picture of how this is going down.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
154. MaxWeather
8:23 PM GMT on March 27, 2017
Hello Skye
Kotg mentioned in my blog the possibility of helping me keep up the hurricane prediction list
Some sort of inside conversation

Do know what's going on? I've tried reaching out to Keeper but he hasn't replied
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
153. Skyepony
3:12 PM GMT on March 27, 2017


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
152. Skyepony
12:43 PM GMT on March 27, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
151. Skyepony
11:32 AM GMT on March 27, 2017
Debbie did pull off another round of intensification..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
150. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:37 AM GMT on March 27, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #24
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY THREE (24U)
5:04 PM EST March 27 2017
============================

At 5:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Three (952 hPa) located at 19.5S 150.1E or 200 km east northeast of Bowen and 205 km north northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
80 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Severe Tropical cyclone Debbie strengthened into a category 3 system this morning, and is expected to intensify further as it continues to move west-southwest towards the north Queensland coast today and overnight tonight. Severe Tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to make landfall as a category 4 tropical cyclone between Cape Upstart and Cape Hillsborough north of Mackay on Tuesday morning.

GALES are now occuring about the Whitsunday Islands and the nearby coast, extending south to about Sarina, and are expected to extend to the remaining exposed coast and islands elsewhere between Ayr and St Lawrence this evening, and potentially extending further northwest to Cardwell and further inland to locations such as Charters Towers, Pentland and Mount Coolon on overnight and Tuesday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Cape Upstart and Mackay during the remainder of the afternoon and evening. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further northwest along the coast to Townsville overnight and during Tuesday and to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville, during the day on Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to cross the coast between Ayr and Cape Hillsborough north of Mackay on Tuesday morning with wind gusts potentially to 260 km/h near the centre of the system.

Residents between Cape Upstart and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding have developed around the central coast and Whitsundays and are expected to spread to other parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas tonight and continue through Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 150 to 250 mm, with isolated event totals of 500 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Rollingstone and Gladstone, extending inland to the Upper Flinders, Thomson and Barcoo catchments.


Dvorak Intensity:T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 20.0S 148.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4) east of Bowen
24 HRS 20.4S 147.5E - 55 knots (CAT 3) Overland Queensland west of Collinsville
48 HRS 21.9S 145.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 23.9S 148.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has shown rapid development through today. Deep convection rapidly developed around the system center this morning, with a clear eye developing during the day. The latest Dvorak analysis was therefore based on an eye pattern in IR, with a LG surround and OW eye, with +0.5 for eye adjustment DT of 5.5. MET and PT are 5.0. FT was based on DT but constrained to 5.0 due to Dvorak rules. SATCON has jumped dramatically during the day to about 90 knots. ADT from both agencies are around 5.5. Forecast system to become category 4 in the next 6 hours.

Confidence in the center position is rated as good based on a combination of radar imagery from Willis Island and Bowen radars and animated visible satellite imagery.

The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the primary steering influence. However, animated WV imagery suggests that the shortwave trough moving north into SE Queensland may have a little more amplitude than the models are suggesting, leading to a slight weakening of the ridge and a slightly more southerly track which has been evident over the past 12 hours. There may also be some influence from internal processes within the cyclone core, where it remains somewhat disorganized. Overall, the system is most likely to remain on a general west southwest track for the next 24 hours up to landfall on the Queensland coast. There is still reasonably high confidence in this track, although there is more uncertainty on the southern side.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at a standard rate following the recent period of rapid intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Cardwell to St Lawrence including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, and inland ncluding Charters Towers, Pentland, Collinsville, and Mount Coolon of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from inland areas between Lucinda and Pentlandof Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
149. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:50 PM GMT on March 26, 2017
BOM still going for category 4 before and during landfall. (105 knots - 1 min avg)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #18
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
4:57 AM EST March 27 2017
============================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two (983 hPa) located at 18.6S 150.6E or 400 km east of Townsville and 285 km east northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical cyclone Debbie is expected to continue moving west southwest towards the north Queensland coast while potentially developing into a severe tropical cyclone during today. Tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to make landfall between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

GALES are now occurring about the Whitsunday Islands, and are expected to extend to the exposed coast and islands elsewhere between Ayr and Mackay this morning. GALES could extend to remaining coastal and adjacent inland areas between Lucinda and St Lawrence later today before potentially extending further north to coastal areas between Innisfail and Lucinda on Tuesday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay later this morning. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may then gradually extend further north to Lucinda during today and overnight into Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to cross the coast between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning with wind gusts potentially to 230 km/h near the centre.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS and GALES could extend inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, and Pentland later on Tuesday as the weakening cyclone moves inland.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur south of Proserpine on the high tides today.

Residents between Lucinda and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas later today and continue through Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 200 mm, with isolated falls of 400 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cardwell and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 19.1S 149.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 19.5S 148.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS 20.3S 145.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 22.1S 144.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has shown little signs of development on satellite imagery over the last 24 hours. Deep convective clouds with low cloud top temperatures continue to wrap around the system center. The latest Dvorak analysis was therefore based on a curved band pattern with a 0.7 degree wrap and an additional 0.5 for white band, which yielded a DT of 3.5. MET and PAT were both 3.5. FT was based on MET as the DT was not completely clear. CI maintained at 4.0 as per the Dvorak rules. SATCON evidence suggests a system intensity of 62 knots [1-minute mean], which when converted to a 10-minute mean roughly matches the currently analysed intensity inferred from Dvorak.

Confidence in the center position is rated as good based on a combination of radar imagery from Willis Island and Bowen radars and animated infrared satellite imagery.

The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the dominant steering influence, and this will maintain the system on a west southwest track until landfall on the Queensland coast, which is currently expected during Tuesday morning. There is high confidence in this track given the simple environment and excellent consistency among deterministic and ensemble numerical weather prediction models.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at above the standard rate. This is above most objective guidance, with the ECMWF deterministic model being an exception. The forecast allows for a period of rapid intensification to occur before landfall in the favorable environment, which recent SHIPS guidance suggests is a possibility. However, CIMSS satellite winds and animated water vapor satellite imagery indicate that the outflow channel to the north of the system has weakened over the last 12 hours and therefore it is possible that the window for any rapid intensification may be diminishing.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lucinda to St Lawrence including Townsville, Ayr, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, and inland of Bowen including Collinsville of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Innisfail to Lucinda, and inland areas including Charters Towers, Pentland, and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
148. georgevandenberghe
9:58 PM GMT on March 26, 2017
Quoting 141. Skyepony:

Here is GEOS-5 for the possible storm trying to pull together over the weekend. Has Bahamas missing the worst as it curves quickly out in the Atlantic.


Weebly site is atleast something to link to or place to put self updating stuff. Posted there today. Just started trying to delve deeper into a way to do that on disqus. There is another one, don't think it's published. It's like a start of an indoors pursuits sort of space. My basic lotion recipe is in there & how to make trumpet valve oil... I'll link it in entry here before we go.

Harvested peppers lastnight. Good year for cauliflower, looks like big heads coming.

Took a cute pic of moo yesterday. They hung out in the back, out of the 0.46" rain. She's starting to show..

George~ Feel Better!



Pretty rotten saturday. Better sunday.. started catching up around the house, transplanted tomatoes to red solo cups. Saturday was hot and humid (upper 70s) then backdoor cold front came thru and today stayed in the upper 40s and I restarted the woodstove. Still need to get out to garden but work and house responsibilities intervene.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
147. Skyepony
7:56 PM GMT on March 26, 2017
Hades~ Debbie drew in a little dry air but is still strengthening.. I'll go 95kts at landfall.




OR~ Like how they use the multi-lingual trainers..

aqua~ You can post it..

It's a farm day anyways:)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
146. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:48 AM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
10:54 AM EST March 26 2017
============================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two (983 hPa) located at 18.1S 151.4E or 500 km east northeast of Townsville and 395 km east northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical cyclone Debbie is starting to adopt a west-southwest track towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system this evening. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely to intensify further prior to making landfall between Lucinda and the area north of Mackay on Tuesday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay during this afternoon or evening, and could extend further south to St Lawrence tonight. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Cairns and Ayr on Monday or during Tuesday morning, as well as further inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay as early as Monday morning, before extending further north to Lucinda by the evening.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the center.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Major river flooding may also develop over a broad area next week and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cairns and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity:T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 18.6S 150.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 19.0S 149.8E - 85 knots (CAT 3) east of Townsville
48 HRS 19.6S 147.4E - 100 knots (CAT 4) Overland Queensland near Ayr
72 HRS 20.7S 144.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Queensland

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has continued to show improved signs of development on satellite imagery over the last 24 hours. The latest Dvorak intensity analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.7 degree wrap, giving a DT of 3.5. MET is 4.0 and PAT 3.5. FT was based on DT and PT. This analysis is supported by observations from Marion Reef and Lihou Reef and a recent ASCAT pass over the system; the ASCAT pass was also useful for confirming wind radii. SATCON estimates have been suggested a system with an intensity of 65 knots [1-minute mean], which roughly matches the analyzed intensity when converted to a 10-minute mean.

Confidence in the centre position is rated as good based on a combination of imagery from Willis Island radar, animated visible satellite imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Steering has been weak for the past 12 to 18 hours, however CIMSS satellite winds suggest a mid-level ridge building to the south of the system as forecast. This will steer the system to the west-southwest for the next several days until landfall on the Queensland coast, which is currently expected during Tuesday morning, or at earliest overnight Monday. Deterministic numerical weather prediction models all follow this scenario with landfalls occurring broadly between Lucinda and Mackay along the Queensland east coast.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is excellent in all quadrants. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at slightly above the standard rate. This is generally on the high end of the objective guidance spectrum, although HWRF and recent SHIPS guidance are similar. Recent SSMIS microwave pass combined with SHIPS RI guidance suggest a period of rapid intensification is possible in the next 24 hours. Given this evidence, the intensity may be higher than forecast approaching landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Ayr to St Lawrence including Bowen, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from remaining coastal areas from Cairns to Ayr including Innisfail and Townsville, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
145. aquak9
2:14 AM GMT on March 26, 2017
passionfruit in pots now
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
144. OrangeRoses
9:07 PM GMT on March 25, 2017
Bao Bao, an American-Born Panda, Steps Out in China

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
143. RobDaHood
7:03 AM GMT on March 25, 2017
Hey! Stop putting swirly things in my sky Skye!
Not ready for that sort of excitement yet.
:o)

Listened to some flute music again today. Thanks for that.
Have a great night.
Need sleep. Deep long sleep!

-Hood out.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
142. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:56 AM GMT on March 25, 2017
Debbie appears to be a big issue for Queensland Australia in the coming days. Forecast to intensify to at least Cat 4 before landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
Storm Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY ONE (24U)
10:58 AM EST March 25 2017
============================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category One (992 hPa) located at 17.4S 151.9E or 650 km east of Cairns and 580 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

The tropical low over the central Coral Sea has recently developed into Tropical Cyclone Debbie. The system has been moving slowly southwards overnight, but has recently shown signs of shifting onto a west southwest track. This general west southwesterly motion is expected to continue for the next few days, bringing the cyclone towards the north Queensland coast. Conditions are expected to favor the continued intensification of the cyclone as it approaches the coast over the weekend and into early next week.

GALES are not expected to develop about the Queensland east coast today, however they could develop about the coast and islands between Cape Tribulation and St Lawrence, including the Whitsunday Islands, during Sunday.

Based on the current forecast track, abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront.

Areas of heavy rain are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas into Sunday. A Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cooktown and Mackay, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 17.7S 151.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 18.0S 151.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 18.9S 149.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3) East of Townsville
72 HRS 19.5S 146.8E - 85 knots (CAT 3) Overland Queensland south of Townsville

Additional Information
=================
The tropical low has recently developed into Tropical Cyclone Debbie. The system is associated with an impressive, very large circulation, but until recently has shown little development near the center. However, it continues to become slowly organized, particularly near the center, where convection is finally becoming more sustained. The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.6 degree wrap, giving a DT of 3.0. MET and PAT were both 3.0. This analysis was supported by observations of sustained gales from Marion Reef.

Confidence in the location of the system is considered good based on animated visible imagery, Willis Island radar and surface observations from Lihou Reef. Pressure observations have declined significantly at Lihou Reef over the last 24 hour with an mean sea level pressure observation of 991.8hPa at 1800 UTC March 24th.

Until recently, the system was being steered to the southeast by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. In the last few hours, the expected shift onto a west southwesterly track has been evident, as the upper trough moves further east, and a new mid level ridge builds to the south of the system. The latter is expected to remain the dominant steering mechanism over the next few days, keeping the cyclone on a west southwesterly track and taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. Given such a large circulation, it can be expected that the system will have some effect back onto the surrounding steering systems --this is part of the reason for the drift to more southerly tracks recently. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there remain some differences in forward speed among the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water. It should also be noted that a significant proportion of EC Ensemble tracks remain to the north of the current cluster of deterministic forecasts, taking the system onto the coast north of Cardwell.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is excellent in all quadrants. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast. The intensity forecast is based on slightly more than a standard rate of intensification; given the favorable environment it is likely that there will be periods of more rapid intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Tribulation to St Lawrence, including Cairns, Townsville and Mackay of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
141. Skyepony
6:41 PM GMT on March 24, 2017
Here is GEOS-5 for the possible storm trying to pull together over the weekend. Has Bahamas missing the worst as it curves quickly out in the Atlantic.


Weebly site is atleast something to link to or place to put self updating stuff. Posted there today. Just started trying to delve deeper into a way to do that on disqus. There is another one, don't think it's published. It's like a start of an indoors pursuits sort of space. My basic lotion recipe is in there & how to make trumpet valve oil... I'll link it in entry here before we go.

Harvested peppers lastnight. Good year for cauliflower, looks like big heads coming.

Took a cute pic of moo yesterday. They hung out in the back, out of the 0.46" rain. She's starting to show..

George~ Feel Better!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
140. aquak9
12:38 PM GMT on March 24, 2017
Looked over the Weebly site; that looks nice for you to use. I think you can do a lot with that.

Found the copy of the letter about the passionfruit, I have a total of seven of them; you said 3" pots? Gonna try to get that done this weekend. Also, three butternut squash that found their way onto my doorstep- and Sorry the Eggplant. Didja see'm on the Disqus side? he's doing great along with the longevity spinach. Gotta few peppers and those everglades toms to get outside this weekend, too.

Hoping Two-PennyMoo is doing good, I'm thinking of her a lot it seems.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
139. LowerCal
10:30 PM GMT on March 23, 2017
I bookmarked your weebly link, Skye. I've always enjoyed the variety of subjects I found here and all the nice, interesting, informative and entertaining commenters. Most of all I really counted on your weather eye on the tropics relative to the Florida East Coast.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
138. georgevandenberghe
2:47 PM GMT on March 23, 2017
Maybe last freeze of the season in the urban core of DC this morning. But suburbs are still at risk for six or seven weeks. Low 20s in College Park this morning. I covered most seedlings but forgot three flats of peas which look damaged but not completely dead. As an experiment, I brought two inside for a half hour this morning while leaving the other outside. The ones warmed fast inside look much worse.

Sick with bronchitis for four days, just about totally drained, fevers, really weak. Much better today but contemplating digging the soil just made me want to curl up and sit quietly instead.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
137. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:39 PM GMT on March 23, 2017
99S has made landfall earlier today in Western Australia.

At 2:00 PM WST, A tropical low was located overland near 20.6S 118.5E (30 km southwest of Port Hedland) and expected to continue moving south and is not expected to intensify over land. A Severe Weather Warning is current for the system for the Pilbara district [www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/].

92S

Another small tropical low was located near 15.0S 110.3E (about 900 km north northwest of Exmouth). The low has a small chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity overnight Thursday or early Friday morning before weakening later Friday and Saturday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
136. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:37 PM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
9:02 PM WST March 23 2017
============================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (995 hPa) located at 13.0S 100.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb should continue moving to the south southeast over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands. It is forecast to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 13.9S 101.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 14.7S 101.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.5S 101.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.3S 100.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb is tracking southeast over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located by microwave and extrapolated Visible imagery located near the southeastern edge of the deep convection. While convection has developed closer to the center indicating further development curvature of deep convection has not increased as evident by the 0949UTC microwave image.

The intensity of 40 knots is influenced by earlier ASCAT passes [0200-0300UTC], which showed gales to the north, west and south of the somewhat elongated center. This is a little higher than the Dvorak analysis which yields a FT/CI of 2.5. This is based on a shear pattern with the low level center under 0.5 degrees from the edge of the deep convection. Adjusted MET is 2.5 based on a developing trend.

Development has been supported by strong low-level forcing from monsoonal NW flow to the north and southeasterly surge from the sub-tropical high to the south, combined with upper-level outflow to the south. This has outweighed the ongoing strong easterly shear [25-30 knots]. The cyclone has some potential to develop in the next 24 hours before becoming disconnected from the monsoon flow and dry air is entrained in the northeast sector. Although the shear should ease, the ocean heat content becomes more marginal south of 15S.0. Gales in southern quadrants are likely to be maintained for several days from the strong southeast synoptic flow as a new sub-tropical ridge builds to the south early next week.

The system is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction over the coming 48 hours due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid-level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction although models.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
135. RobDaHood
3:02 AM GMT on March 23, 2017
Breezy and smoky. Might get some rain tomorrow and it's supposed to get rather windy for 2-3 days.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
134. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:32 AM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW XX
8:48 AM WST March 23 2017
============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (1001 hPa) located at 11.7S 99.7E or 315 km east of Cocos Island and 670 km west southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

A Tropical Low is developing in open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone Thursday night or Friday morning as it drifts to the south southeast, away from the islands.

The system is expected to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Gale Force Winds
==============
180 NM in the northeastern quadrants
180 NM in the northwestern quadrants

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 12.7S 100.4E - 35 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 13.5S 100.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
133. LakeWorthFinn
12:40 AM GMT on March 23, 2017
U DA GAL {{{Skye}}} wooohooo!

Oh my... took a look at the back yard this morning. Can't post pics, but a huge oak, over 50 ft tall, fell last night there, fence damaged, glad it didn't fall on the house. So sad to see a beautiful tree with little leaf beginnings die, it's totally uprooted :( Neighbors home has a tree through the roof. Tornado touched down in Dawsonville. Maybe here too, looks like it. Whole Jasper was in total blackout till noon today.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
132. RobDaHood
7:21 AM GMT on March 22, 2017
Quoting 128. Skyepony:

Hey everyone~ Thanks for bringing and stopping by.

Recorded and put out two albums on soundcloud this afternoon.
This is original music (2 songs) and this is some Irish/Scottish tunes (3 songs).

You Rock (and roll) Skye!
Thanks for sharing!

(((Finn)))
Be safe my friend.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
131. LakeWorthFinn
3:14 AM GMT on March 22, 2017
Excluding hurricanes, just lived through the worst storm ever. Went to a trivia night, hubby stayed home, and at 8pm all hell broke loose. I headed home after power went out at the club, but had to step out of the car in golfball size hail to drag a big tree trunk off the road to get back home. No cellphone service to call for help. Powerlines and trees down everywhere. Not suprised if some homes have damage, ours is ok, yard is trashed. Still no power. Grateful for our solar candles & cane kit lanterns!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
130. GardenGrrl
3:12 AM GMT on March 22, 2017
Hey Skye, just running around saying Hello's and goodbyes around here. Thank you for introducing me to Phish. Would love to see them in concert.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
129. WeatherWise
12:03 AM GMT on March 22, 2017
That is great, Skye! Congratulations!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
128. Skyepony
8:56 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Hey everyone~ Thanks for bringing and stopping by.

Recorded and put out two albums on soundcloud this afternoon.
This is original music (2 songs) and this is some Irish/Scottish tunes (3 songs).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
127. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:41 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
tropical low may form into a category one cyclone in about 36-48 hours northeast of Karratha and cross Western Australia east of Karratha.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL LOW XX
2:22 AM WST March 22 2017
============================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low located at 16.5S 116.3E or about 475 km north of Karratha and 490 km north northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

The low is likely to move southwards towards the Pilbara coast during Wednesday and has a moderate chance of becoming a tropical cyclone as it approaches the coast on Thursday.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop between Wallal Downs and Karratha during Thursday. GALES may extend to Onslow if the system takes a more westward track.

Heavy rain will develop along the Pilbara coast during Wednesday and extend inland during Thursday and Friday as the system moves inland.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Wallal Downs to Onslow, including Port Hedland and Karratha of Western Australia
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
126. LakeWorthFinn
4:04 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
UFO, I say it was a UFO in Pakistan :)

Your Weebly website looks good! Left you a comment.

Off to fish dinner..........
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
125. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:29 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL LOW XX
8:51 PM WST March 21 2017
============================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Low located at 15.8S 116.1E or about 555 km north of Karratha and 570 km north northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southwest at 4 knots.

The low is likely to move southwards towards the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and has a moderate chance of becoming a tropical cyclone as it approaches the coast on Thursday.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop between Port Hedland and Onslow during Thursday. GALES may extend to Wallal Downs if the system takes a more eastward track.

Heavy rain will develop along the Pilbara coast during Wednesday and extend inland during Thursday and Friday as the system moves inland.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Wallal Downs to Onslow, including Port Hedland and Karratha of Western Australia
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
124. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:33 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW XX
3:12 PM WST March 21 2017
============================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low located at 15.3S 116.8E or about 590 km north northwest of Port Hedland and 600 km north of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 15 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

The low is likely to move towards the south towards the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and has a moderate chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity as it nears the coast on Thursday.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop between Onslow and Wallal during Thursday. Heavy rain is likely near the track.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Wallal to Onslow including Karratha and Port Hedland of Western Australia
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
123. WeatherWise
3:36 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Hi Everyone, Sharing the FIRST GIFT OF SPRING!

IMG_7633
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
122. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:14 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
11:00 AM FST March 21 2017
============================

At 23:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 18F (1008 hPa) located at 17.0S 175.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Convection remains persistent over supposed low level circulation center. System lies under an upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Circulation extends up to 700HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Global model have picked up the system and move it southeastwards towards high shear.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW to VERY LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
121. Skyepony
11:01 PM GMT on March 20, 2017
Thanks Hood~ Just put the comments back to free/default on Weebly & tested it. Disqus isn't that great to get ad revenue.. Looks like if you have a site with a huge number of hits and you pay a little something they don't treat ya like that.

Trying to land somewhere..but if I was that great of a blogger, wouldn't be getting kicked out like this. A public blog at your site would do.

Got a concert coming up. Started playing the penny whistle regular too. Should really record and get more music out there. The beautiful weather hasn't been encouraging me to stay inside and do much building/creating online either.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
120. RobDaHood
10:32 PM GMT on March 20, 2017
Just checked it a couple times over the weekend and this morning. Didn't leave a comment. I've heard that about Discus with adds & stuff but don't have any experience with it. If you don't get something worked out that you like, I might be able to help you with something in the near future. I May also make some stuff on my site publicly accessible eventually. I know Ylee would prefer a cam blog that was public. One problem is that I don't have time to moderate public comments right now. So stay in touch and let me know what you end up doing. I'll be checking the WU blogs for the duration, but not posting a lot.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
119. Skyepony
10:01 PM GMT on March 20, 2017
Quoting 118. RobDaHood:

Bookmarked your weebly.

Did write another blog there today. Don't know if I'll keep that site published. Got back around to trying to get disqus comments on it. Turns out disqus will put ads on it and take the revenue if and when I get that figured out, for using their comment service. Still doesn't look to have taken either. There is other things to try (thanks rainman, but I've had so little time it's not about being unable to yet) but what really is the use? The SEO seems far inferior to WU, anything Skyepony comes up as WU and without alot of social work that isn't gonna get much for views even if I really tried there..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
118. RobDaHood
6:04 PM GMT on March 20, 2017
Bookmarked your weebly.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
117. georgevandenberghe
3:30 PM GMT on March 20, 2017
A comment I'll make in several places


2016 produced the worst freeze damage in 50 years here in College Park MD

2017: "Hold my beer"
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
116. redagainPatti
8:07 AM GMT on March 20, 2017
Wandering around this early morning... in and out of the blogs... wanting to wave hi to all...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
115. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:32 AM GMT on March 20, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:13 PM WST March 20 2017
===========================

System #1
-------------

A weak tropical low lies near 12.3S 119.4E (about 700 km north northwest of Broome). It is forecast to move slowly west and then south towards the Pilbara coast. While there is some uncertainty in the forecast track, there is a chance the system reaches the central or western Pilbara coast later Thursday or Friday. There is also a chance the system moves slower and tracks to the west before reaching the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Tuesday: LOW
Wednesday: MODERATE
Thursday: HIGH

System #2
-------------

The monsoon trough lies near the Cocos Islands and Christmas Island. A tropical low may form in the trough near Cocos Islands over the next couple days and then remain in the vicinity of Cocos Islands until later Saturday when it starts moving away to the southwest. The system is expected to strengthen over the next few days, with the risk of it developing into a tropical cyclone increasing towards the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Tuesday: VERY LOW
Wednesday: LOW
Thursday: LOW
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
114. georgevandenberghe
11:48 PM GMT on March 19, 2017
The broccoli that got through December and January, was clobbered in March by low 20s with wind after it had broken dormancy. I got a little bit but it's pretty well over until May when my spring seedlings produce.



Picked a bunch more brussels sprouts and spinach though. The spinach has another four to six weeks before it bolts but the brussels sprouts are starting to bolt now.

My peach tree does have some survivors




Bradford pears were devastated. They are covered with brown dead blossoms which are not dropping petals because death stopped normal abscission. A lot of the leaf shoots look bad too. They will probably bud out from secondary buds in a few weeks.

The famous cherry blossoms around the tidal basin were 50% killed. This has NEVER happened before since the trees were planted in the early 1920s. Most of the display will still appear though because later buds will open so they won't look 50% dead
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
113. Rainman32
4:25 PM GMT on March 19, 2017
Quoting 109. Skyepony:

Hey everyone.. Thanks for stopping by.

Resurrected an old Weebly site of mine. Put the comments to be handled by Disqus but not sure if that is just incompatible with my browser or not working properly.

Pretty sure something's not set up right. I'll be happy to help get it sorted out. I like the simple, straightforward look of that blog and disqus comments is total bonus.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 66.2 °F
Dew Point: 65.8 °F
Humidity: 99%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 2:35 AM EDT on March 30, 2017

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