Tropical Cyclone Berguitta

Last Updated: 1516212000

Location:
-18.9N 300.5E
Movement:
SW at 6 mph
Wind:
75 mph
Pressure:
--

Storm Maps
Storm Details

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000 
wtxs31 pgtw 172100
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone 06s (berguitta) warning nr 021//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 06s (berguitta) warning nr 021    
   01 active tropical cyclone in southio
   Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
   wind radii valid over open water only
    ---
   warning position:
   171800z --- near 18.9s 59.5e
     movement past six hours - 225 degrees at 06 kts
     position accurate to within 030 nm
     position based on center located by satellite
   present wind distribution:
   Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 050 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
                            065 nm southeast quadrant
                            040 nm southwest quadrant
                            040 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 110 nm northeast quadrant
                            170 nm southeast quadrant
                            165 nm southwest quadrant
                            090 nm northwest quadrant
   repeat posit: 18.9s 59.5e
    ---
   forecasts:
   12 hrs, valid at:
   180600z --- 20.1s 58.0e
   Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 000 nm northeast quadrant
                            025 nm southeast quadrant
                            000 nm southwest quadrant
                            000 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
                            065 nm southeast quadrant
                            035 nm southwest quadrant
                            025 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 120 nm northeast quadrant
                            210 nm southeast quadrant
                            205 nm southwest quadrant
                            085 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 24 hr posit: 235 deg/ 12 kts
    ---
   24 hrs, valid at:
   181800z --- 21.5s 56.0e
   Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 000 nm northeast quadrant
                            020 nm southeast quadrant
                            010 nm southwest quadrant
                            010 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 040 nm northeast quadrant
                            075 nm southeast quadrant
                            055 nm southwest quadrant
                            035 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 105 nm northeast quadrant
                            225 nm southeast quadrant
                            210 nm southwest quadrant
                            095 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 36 hr posit: 230 deg/ 12 kts
    ---
   36 hrs, valid at:
   190600z --- 23.1s 54.0e
   Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 005 nm northeast quadrant
                            025 nm southeast quadrant
                            025 nm southwest quadrant
                            015 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 045 nm northeast quadrant
                            065 nm southeast quadrant
                            045 nm southwest quadrant
                            040 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 120 nm northeast quadrant
                            255 nm southeast quadrant
                            225 nm southwest quadrant
                            100 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 48 hr posit: 215 deg/ 12 kts
    ---
   extended outlook:
   48 hrs, valid at:
   191800z --- 25.1s 52.4e
   Max sustained winds - 060 kt, gusts 075 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 050 kt winds - 045 nm northeast quadrant
                            065 nm southeast quadrant
                            035 nm southwest quadrant
                            030 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 145 nm northeast quadrant
                            245 nm southeast quadrant
                            215 nm southwest quadrant
                            095 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 72 hr posit: 195 deg/ 13 kts
    ---
   72 hrs, valid at:
   201800z --- 30.0s 51.1e
   Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   becoming extratropical
   radius of 050 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
                            065 nm southeast quadrant
                            055 nm southwest quadrant
                            045 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 175 nm northeast quadrant
                            225 nm southeast quadrant
                            185 nm southwest quadrant
                            135 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 96 hr posit: 145 deg/ 07 kts
    ---
   long range outlook:
    ---
   96 hrs, valid at:
   211800z --- 32.4s 53.0e
   Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   extratropical
   radius of 050 kt winds - 020 nm northeast quadrant
                            050 nm southeast quadrant
                            070 nm southwest quadrant
                            050 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 160 nm northeast quadrant
                            280 nm southeast quadrant
                            240 nm southwest quadrant
                            170 nm northwest quadrant
    ---
remarks:
172100z position near 19.2s 59.1e.
Tropical cyclone 06s (berguitta), located approximately 144 nm
east-northeast of port Louis, Mauritius, has tracked southwestward
at 06 knots over the past six hours. Recent animated multispectral 
satellite imagery shows a shield of relatively disorganized deep 
convection persisting over a low-level circulation center evident in 
a 171715z metop-b ascat pass and a 1758z metop-a ascat pass. The 
current position is based on these ascat passes, with high 
confidence. The intensity of 65 knots is consistent with recent 
multi-agency Dvorak and automated satellite intensity consensus 
estimates. Tc 06s is turning poleward under the steering influence 
of a reorienting subtropical ridge situated to the southeast. The 
system is expected to continue tracking around the ridge axis during 
the forecast period, beginning extratropical transition by tau 72 
and completing by tau 96. Intensity is expected to remain relatively 
steady over the next 36 hours as favorable poleward outflow and 
unfavorable, moderate easterly vertical wind shear exert competing 
influences. Marginal weakening is anticipated in the medium to 
extended-range as the tc 06s tracks over cooler water and encounters 
increasing vertical wind shear, but receives offsetting baroclinic 
support as it undergoes extratropical transition. The current, high-
confidence forecast track is consistent with consensus model 
trackers, which remain in tight agreement. Maximum significant wave 
height at 171800z is 25 feet. Next warnings at 180300z, 180900z, 
181500z and 182100z.//
Nnnn

Learn more about Tropical Cyclone Berguitta and the 2018 South Indian Ocean hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

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Storm Track Statistics

Date Time Lat Lon Wind (mph) Pressure Storm Type
Jan 12 18 GMT -17 66.9 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 00 GMT -17.3 65.6 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 06 GMT -17.7 64.9 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 12 GMT -17.9 64.0 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 18 GMT -18.3 63.6 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 00 GMT -18.2 63.4 60 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 06 GMT -18.1 63.0 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 12 GMT -18.1 62.9 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 18 GMT -18 63.1 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 00 GMT -17.8 63.2 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 06 GMT -17.8 63.2 85 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 12 GMT -18 63.0 105 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 18 GMT -18.1 62.6 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 00 GMT -18.2 61.9 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 06 GMT -18 61.6 110 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 12 GMT -18.2 61.1 100 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 18 GMT -18.2 60.8 90 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 00 GMT -18.3 60.6 90 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 06 GMT -18.1 60.2 80 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 12 GMT -18.3 59.8 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 18 GMT -18.9 59.5 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 12 18 GMT -17 66.9 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 00 GMT -17.3 65.6 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 06 GMT -17.7 64.9 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 12 GMT -17.9 64.0 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 18 GMT -18.3 63.6 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 00 GMT -18.2 63.4 60 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 06 GMT -18.1 63.0 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 12 GMT -18.1 62.9 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 18 GMT -18 63.1 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 00 GMT -17.8 63.2 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 06 GMT -17.8 63.2 85 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 12 GMT -18 63.0 105 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 18 GMT -18.1 62.6 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 00 GMT -18.2 61.9 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 06 GMT -18 61.6 110 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 12 GMT -18.2 61.1 100 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 18 GMT -18.2 60.8 90 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 00 GMT -18.3 60.6 90 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 06 GMT -18.1 60.2 80 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 12 GMT -18.3 59.8 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 18 GMT -18.9 59.5 75 -- Tropical Cyclone

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Learn more about Tropical Cyclone Berguitta and the 2018 South Indian Ocean hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

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