U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Storm Prediction Center ac 241248 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0748 am CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 


Valid 241300z - 251200z 


..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms Ark-la-tex... 


..There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms south-central 
states... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms similarly 
surrounding the slight risk... 


... 
Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the 
south-central U.S. Late afternoon into tonight. Damaging winds and a 
few tornadoes appear most likely over The Ark-la-tex. 


... 
Vigorous shortwave trough over the south-Central High plains will 
dampen as it gradually shifts east into the Ozark Plateau by early 
Saturday, with an accompanying strong surface cyclone filling along 
a similar track. Despite weakening kinematic fields, magnitudes will 
remain strong through much of the period with both low/mid-level 
jets prevalent east of the synoptic wave. 


..south-central states... 
Modifying warm-sector moisture should result in mean mixing ratios 
of 11-12 g/kg reaching eastern OK by afternoon and spreading into Arkansas 
this evening ahead of a north/south-oriented Pacific cold 
front/effective dryline. Low-topped convection is already present 
near this front over central Texas. This activity should gradually 
expand in coverage and deepen as diurnal destabilization occurs, 
especially during the afternoon. Effective shear magnitude around 50 
kt will support organized lines and embedded supercell structures 
with a mixed severe hail/wind risk. Probable consolidation into one 
or more qlcss should support a predominant damaging wind and 
embedded tornado risk shifting east this evening where low-level 
hodographs will remain enlarged from southern MO towards the Sabine 
valley. 


Farther northwest across Kansas into eastern OK, a separate area of 
severe storms is anticipated mainly late afternoon to early evening 
near the surface cyclone and southwest/northeast-oriented surface 
front. While boundary-layer moisture will be comparatively limited, 
steepening mid-level lapse rates should compensate and yield a 
weakly to moderately unstable air mass. Low-level hodographs will be 
smaller with northwest extent in the warm sector. However, strong 
mid/upper-level speed shear should be favorable for hail growth, 
along with isolated severe winds. 


.Grams/Gleason.. 03/24/2017 


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Mesoscale Discussion


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Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 240231 
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Mesoscale discussion 0316 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0931 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 


Areas affected...Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and southwest Kansas 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 78... 


Valid 240231z - 240330z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 78 
continues. 


Summary...an evolving line of thunderstorms will continue to move 
east into the overnight. Although an isolated large hail or damaging 
wind gust will be possible, the overall severe weather threat should 
diminish with time. 


Discussion...a surface cold front will continue to accelerate east, 
overtaking a dryline across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. The 
result will be a brief increase in thunderstorm intensity and 
coverage as low-level convergence increases, especially across the 
Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. However, with time, weakening 
instability, increasing convective inhibition, and decreasing 
surface moisture to the east should result in an overall weakening 
thunderstorm trend. As such, the Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be 
allowed to expire. 


.Marsh/Thompson.. 03/24/2017 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...oun...ddc...gld...lub...Ama...maf...pub... 


Latitude...Lon 33620279 35750296 38120264 39140159 38980020 37049976 
35359971 34129983 33420005 32810096 32950241 33620279