U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 150758 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0158 am CST Fri Feb 15 2019 


Valid 171200z - 181200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
the risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. 
Sunday through Sunday night. 


... 
Large-scale ridging and troughing evolving within the mid-latitude 
westerlies across the eastern Pacific into western North America may 
trend more positively tilted through this period. Within this 
regime, a vigorous short wave trough, initially digging along the 
Pacific coast to the east of the ridging, is forecast to gradually 
turn inland through the base of the large-scale troughing, across 
the southern Great Basin and southwest by early Monday. 


At the same time, short wave ridging may build downstream, into and 
through the southeast, to the north of an increasingly prominent 
subtropical ridge becoming centered over the Bahamas. And a weak 
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone, initially over the lower 
Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity, is forecast to undergo 
shearing and deformation while accelerating northeastward within an 
increasingly confluent regime to the north of the Ohio River. As it 
does, an associated cold front may advance southward through much of 
the remainder of the Gulf Coast states, and southeast of the 
southern Appalachians into the South Atlantic Seaboard, before 
becoming quasi-stationary. 


Above the shallower leading edge of the advancing cold air, it does 
appear that a southerly return flow will persist and continue to 
moisten. Models suggest that this may contribute to sufficient 
elevated destabilization to support scattered weak thunderstorm 
activity by Sunday night, particularly in a corridor east-northeast 
of the lower Mississippi Valley through the southern Appalachians 
(near the northern periphery of the mid-level subtropical ridging). 


Otherwise, destabilization beneath cold mid-level air may support 
additional convection capable of producing lightning near central 
and Southern California coastal areas Sunday. Potential for weak 
thunderstorm development inland across the lower Colorado valley 
into The Four Corners region late Sunday into Sunday night currently 
remains more unclear. 


.Kerr.. 02/15/2019 


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