- Day Three
acus03 kwns 190730
Storm Prediction Center ac 190729
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 am CDT sun Aug 19 2018
Valid 211200z - 221200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the upper
Ohio River valley and north-central Appalachians...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday especially across
portions of the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic states.
..Appalachians/upper Ohio River valley and mid-Atlantic/northeast
although the primary surface cyclogenesis will be focused north of
the international border, a semi-amplified belt of seasonally strong
westerlies will overspread much of the region on Tuesday coincident
with an eastward-moving cold front. While the possibility of
relatively widespread early-day convection and cloud cover limits
confidence in appreciable destabilization, relatively strong
low-level shear and upwards of 35-40 kt effective shear suggests the
potential for sustained multicells and some supercells where
adequate diurnally enhanced destabilization occurs. This currently
appears most probable across the north-central Appalachians and
upper Ohio River valley vicinity. That said, at least isolated
severe storms may occur as far south as the Carolinas under a more
modestly strong flow regime.
..Central High plains...
At least a few severe thunderstorms may occur across the region
Tuesday afternoon into evening. This will be in association with
enhanced moist low-level upslope flow to the north of a southern
High Plains surface low and in conjunction with a moderately strong
belt of westerlies to the north of the southern High Plains-centered