U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 200559 
Storm Prediction Center ac 200558 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1258 am CDT Fri Apr 20 2018 

Valid 211200z - 221200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from central Texas 
into western/southwestern la... 

Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions 
of Texas into southern Louisiana Saturday. 

..Southern Plains... 
Fairly deep upper trough will move across the central/Southern 
Plains on Saturday, accompanied by enhanced mid-level flow through 
its southern periphery. An attendant surface low will gradually 
weaken/fill as it progresses across central Texas and a cold front will 
move across the majority of the Southern Plains in its wake. 

A confined warm sector is anticipated ahead of this low, 
characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s. Northern extent of the 
warm sector will be limited by both the more southerly track of the 
surface low and by widespread warm-advection showers and 
thunderstorms across OK and north/northeast Texas. A few of these 
elevated storms may produce small hail, but the severe threat is 
currently anticipated to be fairly limited. 

Within the limited warm sector, expansive cloudiness will likely 
temper heating throughout much of the morning through mid-afternoon. 
Thereafter, as the warm conveyor shifts eastward, some clearing just 
ahead of the cold front is possible. While some mixing will likely 
occur if this clearing is realized, enough low-level moisture would 
still be in place to support isolated thunderstorm development along 
the cold front amidst the modestly unstable environment. With the 
warm conveyor displaced east, low-level flow (i.E. 850 mb and below) 
will likely have weakened but enhanced mid-level flow will still 
support moderate to strong bulk shear. As a result, a few strong to 
severe storms are possible from north-central into central Texas as the 
cold front pushes through. This severe potential merits low severe 
probabilities (i.E. 5%) but uncertainty regarding numerous factors 
including the actual track of the surface low, warm front position, 
and extent of the clearing ahead of the cold front precludes higher 
probabilities with this forecast. 

.Mosier.. 04/20/2018