U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 250600 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0100 am CDT Mon Jun 25 2018 

Valid 261200z - 271200z 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across much of 
Missouri...Illinois...eastern Iowa...and eastern Kansas... 

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday across 
eastern Iowa, much of Illinois and Missouri, and eastern Kansas. 

..synopsis and discussion... 
An upper low will move eastward from Iowa toward the upper Great 
Lakes, with a weak surface low in the vicinity of Iowa or northern MO. 
Meanwhile, a warm front will northward into southern WI and lower 
mi, with a cold front from the surface low southwestward into Kansas. 

Early day storms are expected over southern MO into IL, and some of 
this activity could contain strong winds. In the wake of this 
activity, an instability axis is expected to develop from eastern Kansas 
across MO and into IL, which should support additional late-day 
activity along the cold front, and, during the day near the surface 

Given sufficient air mass recovery, mixed-Mode severe is expected 
with supercells and possible small bows by late afternoon and 
persisting into the evening. Hail, wind, and isolated tornadoes will 
all be possible. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: 5% - slight 
wind: 15% - slight 
hail: 15% - slight 

.Jewell.. 06/25/2018