- Day Three
acus02 kwns 151731
Storm Prediction Center ac 151730
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018
Valid 161200z - 171200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
thunderstorms are expected from Texas eastward to the Carolinas.
Gradual progression of a large upper trough over eastern Canada and
the adjacent northeast quarter of the U.S. Is expected this period,
while a cut-off low oscillates over the Desert Southwest. At the
surface, a cold front initially extending from North Carolina
west-southwestward across the southeast and into the western Gulf
will linger, drifting very slowly southward with time.
The cold front will be a focus for convection -- within a zone
either side of the boundary where low-level ascent will reside.
However, largely modest instability, and with faster flow aloft
confined mostly to the cool side of the front (and oriented in a
front-parallel manner), severe risk appears minimal at this time.
..maximum risk by hazard...
Tornado: <2% - none
wind: <5% - none
hail: <5% - none