U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 290544 
Storm Prediction Center ac 290543 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1243 am CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 

Valid 301200z - 311200z 

..there is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday 
afternoon and evening over parts of northern MS...western and middle 
Tennessee...northwest Alabama...and southwest Kentucky... 

..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of 
central MS northward into southern IL/in... 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over much of the 
lower and middle MS valleys...and into the Ohio/Tennessee valleys... 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over much of the 
lower and middle MS valleys...and into the Ohio/Tennessee valleys... 

An active severe weather event is forecast for Thursday over parts 
of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee 

..northern MS/northwest Alabama/western and middle Tennessee/southwest Kentucky... 
A strong upper trough will rotate across the southern/Central Plains 
today, and into the lower/mid MS valley on Thursday. Models suggest 
that thunderstorm activity from the day1 period will be waning in 
most areas by Thursday morning, while the primary cold front remains 
over central AR/la. This should allow for some heating and 
destabilization to occur ahead of the front, with re-development of 
thunderstorms during the afternoon near the MS river. A strong 
mid-level speed Max (50+ knots at 700mb) will rotate across the cold 
front during the afternoon, promoting strong low-level and deep 
layer vertical shear profiles. Forecast soundings show 0-3km srh 
values of 200-300 m2/s2 and MLCAPE of 1500 j/kg. Several 00z cam 
solutions that extend into the day2 period indicate discrete 
supercell Mode will be preferred with the activity, suggesting a 
favorable environment for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. 
Strong tornadoes and very large hail will be possible in the MDT 
risk area. The eastward extent of low level moisture will be a 
limiting factor to how far east the significant severe threat will 
develop. Nevertheless, strong to severe storms may reach eastern 
Kentucky/Tennessee and parts of Alabama during the evening. 

It appears the risk for severe storms will also extend northward 
into parts of MO/IL/in during the day as activity blossoms ahead of 
the approaching shortwave trough. This area will likely experience 
more cloud cover on Thursday, limiting the confidence in sufficient 
instability. Nevertheless, hail and damaging wind will be possible 
in the stronger cells. 

.Hart.. 03/29/2017