U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus02 kwns 111730 
swody2 
Storm Prediction Center ac 111730 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1130 am CST Tue Dec 11 2018 


Valid 121200z - 131200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
thunderstorms are expected to develop across a portion of southeast 
and East Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night. 
However, the risk for severe weather still appears low at this time. 


..eastern Texas through western la... 


A shortwave trough currently over Southern California will accelerate 
eastward in response to an upstream impulse, reaching central and 
southern Texas late Wednesday night. The surface cyclone that will 
develop in response to this feature is forecast to be located over 
north central Texas with a Pacific cold front extending southward to 
near del Rio by the end of this period. 


As of mid day Tuesday, northeast trajectories are maintaining the 
advection of modified Continental polar air across the western Gulf 
with near surface dewpoints mostly in the 40s f. Surface winds will 
veer to southerly over the western Gulf and eastern Texas early 
Wednesday as high pressure over the southeast U.S. Moves farther 
east. This will result in northward advection of modifying 
Continental polar air with dewpoints reaching the low 50s f over 
northeast Texas to low 60 f along the Texas coast tomorrow night. A 
corridor of weak instability (mucape at or below 500 j/kg) should 
evolve from the Texas coastal area through east central Texas overnight. 
Storms are expected to develop along evolving warm conveyor belt and 
zone of deepening ascent from southeast through East Texas as the 
shortwave trough approaches Wednesday night. Vertical wind profiles 
including size of low-level hodographs will increase within this 
zone, but current indications are that moisture return will probably 
be insufficient for complete removal of the near-surface stable 
layer, and storms will remain slightly elevated which, along with 
the very marginal thermodynamic environment, should limit overall 
severe threat. For this reason will not introduce any severe 
probabilities at this time, but at least a marginal risk category 
might be needed in day 1 updates. 


..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 


.Dial.. 12/11/2018 


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