U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 151731 
Storm Prediction Center ac 151730 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018 

Valid 161200z - 171200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

thunderstorms are expected from Texas eastward to the Carolinas. 

Gradual progression of a large upper trough over eastern Canada and 
the adjacent northeast quarter of the U.S. Is expected this period, 
while a cut-off low oscillates over the Desert Southwest. At the 
surface, a cold front initially extending from North Carolina 
west-southwestward across the southeast and into the western Gulf 
will linger, drifting very slowly southward with time. 

The cold front will be a focus for convection -- within a zone 
either side of the boundary where low-level ascent will reside. 
However, largely modest instability, and with faster flow aloft 
confined mostly to the cool side of the front (and oriented in a 
front-parallel manner), severe risk appears minimal at this time. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 

.Goss.. 10/15/2018