Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abio10 pgtw 251800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
/Ocean/251800z-261800zmar2017//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/250751zmar2017//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
Rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 250600z, tropical cyclone 12s (caleb) was located near 
15.5s 100.0e, approximately 898 nm west-northwest of Learmonth, 
Australia, and had tracked southwestward at 05 knots over the past 
six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 45 
knots gusting to 55 knots. See ref a (wtxs31 pgtw 250900) for 
further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 92s) previously located 
near 15.7s 120.5e, is now located near 15.8s 122.2e, approximately 
129 nm north of Broome, Australia. Animated multispectral satellite 
imagery and a 251318z mhs metop-a 89ghz image depict a condensed 
area of convection near the low level circulation (llc). A 250132z 
ascat pass revealed 25 to 30 knot winds along the northern periphery 
of the llc supporting some potential for further development. Good 
upper level outflow is offset by high vertical wind shear (25-30 
knots). Model development indicates the area will have a low 
potential for future development as the system moves west. Maximum 
sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea 
level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. The potential for 
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 
hours remains low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//
Nnnn

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