Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Weather Discussion
000abio10 pgtw 261800 msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi// subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian /Ocean/261800z-271800zapr2017// ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/260251zapr2017// ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert.// Rmks/ 1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa): a. Tropical cyclone summary: none. B. Tropical disturbance summary: none. 2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa): a. Tropical cyclone summary: none. B. Tropical disturbance summary: (1) the area of convection (invest 97p) previously located near 7.4s 132.5e, is now located near 8.8s 130.9e, approximately 220 nm north of Darwin, Australia. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts increased convection along the southern edge of a consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC). A 261239z ascat partial pass showed the eastern half of a defined LLCC with 25-30 knot winds wrapping in from the south. Environmental conditions are favorable for further development with light to moderate vertical wind shear, strong divergent outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. Global model show rapid development of this disturbance, reaching warning criteria in the next 12 hours as the system tracks southwestward. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high. See ref a (wtxs21 pgtw 260300) for further details. (2) no other suspect areas.// Nnnn
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