Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 261800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/260251zapr2017//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert.//
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 97p) previously located 
near 7.4s 132.5e, is now located near 8.8s 130.9e, approximately 220 
nm north of Darwin, Australia. Animated enhanced infrared satellite 
imagery depicts increased convection along the southern edge of a 
consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC). A 261239z ascat 
partial pass showed the eastern half of a defined LLCC with 25-30 
knot winds wrapping in from the south. Environmental conditions are 
favorable for further development with light to moderate vertical 
wind shear, strong divergent outflow and warm sea surface 
temperatures. Global model show rapid development of this 
disturbance, reaching warning criteria in the next 12 hours as the 
system tracks southwestward. Maximum sustained surface winds are 
estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated 
to be near 1004 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high. 
See ref a (wtxs21 pgtw 260300) for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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