Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abio10 pgtw 260130
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian Ocean
/reissued/260130z-261800zmay2017//
rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: 
      (1) an area of convection (invest 94b) has persisted near 
11.8n 88.7e, approximately 500 nm east of chennai, India. Animated 
enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a 251544z metop-b ascat 
microwave image has a lack of a well defined low level circulation 
but displays flaring convection to the west of the invest area. The 
disturbance is currently located in a neutral to unfavorable shear 
environment and weak divergent upper level outflow. Observations 
closest to the disturbance show pressure decreasing only 1mb over 
the past 24 hours, indicating very little deepening of the 
disturbance. Global models are in good agreement anticipating a 
northerly track with slow development over water within the next 48-
72 hrs. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 
knots. Minimum sea level pressureis estimated to be near 1003 mb. 
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone 
within the next 24 hours is low.
       (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: added area in para 1.B.(1) as a low.//
Nnnn

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