Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Weather Discussion
000abio10 pgtw 251800 msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi// subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian /Ocean/251800z-261800zmar2017// ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/250751zmar2017// ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.// Rmks/ 1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa): a. Tropical cyclone summary: none. B. Tropical disturbance summary: none. 2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa): a. Tropical cyclone summary: (1) at 250600z, tropical cyclone 12s (caleb) was located near 15.5s 100.0e, approximately 898 nm west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia, and had tracked southwestward at 05 knots over the past six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 45 knots gusting to 55 knots. See ref a (wtxs31 pgtw 250900) for further details. (2) no other tropical cyclones. B. Tropical disturbance summary: (1) the area of convection (invest 92s) previously located near 15.7s 120.5e, is now located near 15.8s 122.2e, approximately 129 nm north of Broome, Australia. Animated multispectral satellite imagery and a 251318z mhs metop-a 89ghz image depict a condensed area of convection near the low level circulation (llc). A 250132z ascat pass revealed 25 to 30 knot winds along the northern periphery of the llc supporting some potential for further development. Good upper level outflow is offset by high vertical wind shear (25-30 knots). Model development indicates the area will have a low potential for future development as the system moves west. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low. (2) no other suspect areas.// Nnnn
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