Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 280600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
South Pacific oceans/280600z-290600zjul2017//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/280151zjul2017//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/280154zjul2017//
ref/c/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/272051zjul2017//
narr/refs a and b are tropical cyclone warnings. Ref c is a
tropical cyclone formation alert.//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 280000z, typhoon 07w (Noru) was located near 29.5n 
145.3e, approximately 354 nm northeast of iwo to, and had tracked 
west-southwestward at 15 knots over the past six hours. Maximum 
sustained surface winds were estimated at 65 knots gusting to 80 
knots. See ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 280300) for further details.
      (2) at 280000z, tropical storm 11w (Nesat) was located near 
20.0n 125.9e, approximately 391 nm southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, and 
had tracked northwestward at 08 knots over the past six hours. 
Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 55 knots gusting 
to 70 knots. See ref b (wtpn34 pgtw 280300) for further details.
      (3) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 92w) previously located 
near 19.1n 117.2e, is now located near 19.4n 117.2e, approximately 
240 nm southeast of Hong Kong. Animated multispectral satellite 
imagery depicts a partially exposed and broad low-level circulation 
center (LLCC) with deepening convection located to the south that is 
beginning to wrap in. A 280136z AMSU 89ghz image depicts an 
elongated convective band along the southern arc wrapping into the 
LLCC. A 280232z ascat partial pass shows a few 25 knot wind barbs on 
the periphery an elongated circulation. Upper-level analysis reveals 
a favorable environment with good diffluence aloft aided by an 
equatorward outflow channel, moderate to favorable vertical wind 
shear (15-20 knots) and warm sea surface temperatures (28-30 c). 
Global models indicate slow development as the system remains 
stationary in the northern South China Sea. Jtwc will be issuing a 
first warning on this system at 0900z. Maximum sustained surface 
winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is 
estimated to be near 1000 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high. 
See ref c (wtpn21 pgtw 272100) for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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