Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 181300
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/181300z-190600zfeb2018//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/180752zfeb2018//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 180600z, tropical cyclone 09p (gita) was located near 
27.4s 162.6e, approximately 371 nm south- southwest of Noumea, New 
Caledonia, and had tracked southwestward at 09 knots over the past 
six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 50 
knots gusting to 65 knots. See ref a (wtps31 pgtw 180900) for 
further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 92p) previously located 
near 18.5s 165.8w, is now located near 16.5s 160.5w, approximately 
500 nm west of bora bora. Animated enhanced infrared imagery depicts 
a low level circulation with flaring convection sheared to the east. 
A 180830z ascat image shows a small region of 30 knot winds co-
located with the convective flaring. The upper level environment 
remains marginal with moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear and 
weak divergence aloft. Sea surface temperatures remain warm (27-29 
celsius). Global dynamic models are in better agreement predicting 
92p tracking south and possibly reaching tropical storm strength 
beyond tau 36. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 
to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1000 
mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical 
cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded area in para 2.B.(1) to 

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