Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 201000
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/201000z-210600zapr2018//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 94p) previously located
near 15.1s 177.2e, is now located near 15.2s 176.8e, approximately
160 nm north-northwest of nadi, Fiji. Animated enhanced infrared
satellite imagery and a 200651z 91ghz ssmis microwave image depict a
slightly elongated, fully exposed LLCC with sparse convection
sheared to the east. Vws is currently high (25-30kts) over 94p and
is increasing steadily. SSTs remain warm (27-28c) and are conducive
to development. Global models have backed off, now maintaining weak
troughing travelling south with no significant development before.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb. The
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: downgraded area in para 2.B.(1) to

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