Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 192100
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/192100z-200600zoct2018//
rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 96w) previously located
near 20.8n 153.6e, is now located near 22.5n 151.3e, approximately
667 nm northeast of andersen AFB, Guam. Animated multispectral
satellite imagery and a 191823z ssmis 91ghz image depict an ill-
defined low level circulation (llc) with flaring, disorganized
convection. Upper level analysis indicates moderate (15-20 knot)
vertical wind shear with good poleward outflow. A recent ascat pass
reveals a broad and elongated circulation. Sea surface temperatures
(29-30 celsius) in the surrounding area remain supportive for future
development. Models indicate 96w will consolidate into a subtropical
low as it rounds the subtropical ridge axis over the next 36-48
hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1010 mb.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours remains low.
      (2) an area of convection (invest 97w) has persisted near 8.2n
164.7e, approximately 1212 nm east-southeast of andersen AFB, Guam.
Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a poorly-organized
low level circulation (llc) with scattered convection. Upper level
analysis depicts low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear with favorable
dual outflow. Sea surface temperatures (29-30 celsius) in the
surrounding area are conducive for development. Dynamic models are
in general agreement indicating tropical development with in the
next 48-60 hours, however differ on trajectory. The European models
along with navgem maintain a northwest trajectory while GFS develops
the disturbance east of Saipan. Maximum sustained surface winds are
estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated
to be near 1009 mb. The potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
      (3) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: added area in para 1.B.(2) as a low. //
Nnnn

View All Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones

Category 6

Welcome to Category 6. This is the collective home for Weather Underground's featured writeups by Dr. Jeff Masters (right), Bob Henson (left), Chris Burt, and other regular contributors.

Learn more about and the hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

View All Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Archive

All Atlantic Storms (1851-2018)

Named Storms for 2016

Historical Hurricane Statistics


Articles of Interest