Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 230600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/230600z-240600zjan2019//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 95p) previously located
near 12.3s 142.0e, is now located near 12.3s 141.4e, approximately
40 nm northwest of weipa, Australia. Animated multispectral
satellite imagery and a 230000z mhs metop-b 89ghz microwave image
depict a weakly defined low level circulation (llc) with a majority
of convection located in the northern semicircle. Upper level
analysis depicts low (5-15 kts) vertical wind shear and poleward
outflow. Sea surface temperatures (30-32c) remain conducive for
development. Global models remain in general agreement, showing a
southward trajectory over Cape York over the next two days. Maximum
sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea
level pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb. The potential for
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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