Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Weather Discussion
000 axnt20 knhc 261709 twdatTropical weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 109 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC....ITCZ/monsoon trough...The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of western Africa near 10n14w to 05n17w. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 05n17w to 02n30w to the coast of South America near 01n51w. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are from 01n to 09n between 08w and 16w. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of either side of the ITCZ axis....Discussion...Gulf of Mexico...The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and low pressure over Texas supports fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf and moderate southerly winds over the eastern Gulf. The only exception is light to gentle winds over the northeastern Gulf, near a weak high center inland over southern Georgia. The basin is essentially convection free except for showers associated with a pre-frontal trough that is just about to move offshore the Texas coast. Over the next 24 hours a cold front will clip the northwestern Gulf with showers and thunderstorms possible east of the front. Winds will increase across the eastern Gulf and become briefly fresh and northerly behind the front over the northwestern Gulf.Caribbean Sea...High pressure well northeast of the Caribbean basin and lower pressures over South America support mainly moderate east to southeast winds over the Caribbean today. Locally fresh to strong winds are occurring near the coast of northeast Colombia, and the northern coasts of Venezuela and Honduras. Dry air and subsidence are limiting convection to just some patches of showers in the trade wind flow primarily over the north central and eastern Caribbean. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours....Hispaniola...Low level moisture and daytime heating is supporting terrain induced showers over the area today. Expect most showers to diminish by sunset, except for a few passing showers in the trade wind flow near the south and east coasts overnight tonight. This pattern is expected to repeat itself Thursday.Atlantic Ocean...A dissipating cold front extends into the area of discussion near 31n70w to 28n72w. A pre-frontal trough extends from 28n69w to 20n69w. Any significant convection associated with these boundaries has dissipated. Weak high pressure covers the remainder of the SW N Atlantic. Another surface trough, formally a frontal boundary, extends from 26n50w to 28n60w. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of either side of this trough axis. A broad area of low pressure of 1006 mb centered north of the area near 36n23w supports a surface trough from 31n23w to 27n27w. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the trough axis. Over the next 24 hours an upper trough will develop near the Bahamas supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms.For additional information please visit http://www.Hurricanes.Gov/marine$$ latto
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