Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 261709

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
109 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...ITCZ/monsoon trough...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of western Africa
near 10n14w to 05n17w. The intertropical convergence zone 
continues from 05n17w to 02n30w to the coast of South America 
near 01n51w. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are from 
01n to 09n between 08w and 16w. Isolated moderate convection is 
within 120 nm of either side of the ITCZ axis. 


Gulf of Mexico...

The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and low
pressure over Texas supports fresh to strong southerly winds over
the western Gulf and moderate southerly winds over the eastern 
Gulf. The only exception is light to gentle winds over the 
northeastern Gulf, near a weak high center inland over southern 
Georgia. The basin is essentially convection free except for 
showers associated with a pre-frontal trough that is just about to
move offshore the Texas coast. Over the next 24 hours a cold 
front will clip the northwestern Gulf with showers and
thunderstorms possible east of the front. Winds will increase 
across the eastern Gulf and become briefly fresh and northerly 
behind the front over the northwestern Gulf. 

Caribbean Sea...

High pressure well northeast of the Caribbean basin and lower
pressures over South America support mainly moderate east to
southeast winds over the Caribbean today. Locally fresh to strong
winds are occurring near the coast of northeast Colombia, and the
northern coasts of Venezuela and Honduras. Dry air and subsidence
are limiting convection to just some patches of showers in the 
trade wind flow primarily over the north central and eastern 
Caribbean. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours. 


Low level moisture and daytime heating is supporting terrain
induced showers over the area today. Expect most showers to
diminish by sunset, except for a few passing showers in the trade
wind flow near the south and east coasts overnight tonight. This
pattern is expected to repeat itself Thursday. 

Atlantic Ocean...

A dissipating cold front extends into the area of discussion near
31n70w to 28n72w. A pre-frontal trough extends from 28n69w to
20n69w. Any significant convection associated with these
boundaries has dissipated. Weak high pressure covers the remainder
of the SW N Atlantic. Another surface trough, formally a frontal
boundary, extends from 26n50w to 28n60w. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of either side of this trough axis. A broad area of
low pressure of 1006 mb centered north of the area near 36n23w
supports a surface trough from 31n23w to 27n27w. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the trough
axis. Over the next 24 hours an upper trough will develop near the
Bahamas supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

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