Tropical Weather Discussion

000 
axpz20 knhc 191547
twdep 
Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1547 UTC Thu Jul 19 2018
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 
...Tropical waves...
A tropical wave is analyzed N of 07n along 94w and is estimated 
to be progressing W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted where the tropical wave 
intersects the monsoon trough from 06n to 09n between 92w and 
98w.
  
A tropical wave is analyzed from 07n106w to 16n106w and is 
estimated to be progressing W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 07n to 13n between 100w
and 105w.
A tropical wave is analyzed from 06n126w to 16n123w and is 
estimated to be progressing W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection from 06n to 16n between 120w and 130w.
...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 
The monsoon trough extends 07n70w to 10n110w. The ITCZ reaches
from 10n100w. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06n to
13n east of 105w, and from 06n to 16n between 120w and 130w. 
  
...Discussion...
Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...
Gulf of tehuantepec: strong nocturnal drainage flow, accompanied 
by 6 to 7 ft seas is diminishing, but resume again on Fri night 
and continue through the upcoming weekend. 
    
A surface ridge will persist from the north central Pacific
through the revillagigedo islands for the next few days,
maintaining gentle to moderate breezes across the Mexican
offshore waters into early next week. 3 to 5 ft seas will persist through
late Sat when long- period southerly swell will begin to 
propagate N through the Mexican offshore waters. 
Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador... 
 
Gulf of papagayo: fresh to strong nocturnal easterly drainage 
flow, accompanied by 6 to 8 ft seas, are expected through the 
rest of the week.
  
Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N 
of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 07n and 10n. 
Moderate southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough 
for the next several days accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas.
Long period southerly swell, in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, is 
crossing the Equator, and will continue to propagate N reaching 
the far offshore waters between 05n and 14n W of 86w late sun,
with this swell reaching the coast of Central America on Mon.  
  
Remainder of the area...   
A surface trough will move into the waters north of 27n between
125w and 135w Fri through sun, weakening the subtropical ridge,
and maintaining moderate to occasionally fresh trade wind flow 
farther south.
Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell, in the form of 7-9
ft seas, is moving across the Equator between 90w and 125w, and 
will continue to propagate N reaching across the discussion area 
S of 17n between 80w and 133w late Sun night. 
Long period northerly swell, in the form of 7-9 ft seas, will 
arrive along 32n between 125w and 132w late Thu night, then 
propagate SW across the discussion waters from 30n to 32n 
between 130w and 140w during the upcoming weekend, and then 
subside on Mon.  
  
$$
Christensen

		
		
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