Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 261529

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1529 UTC Fri may 26 2017

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...Tropical waves...

A tropical wave has an axis N of 05n along 81w, moving westward 
at around 10 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave has been 
tracked with convection over South America the past few days. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection are north of 02n and east
of the wave axis. 

A tropical wave has an axis north of 06n along 92w, moving 
westward at around 5 to 10 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave 
is at the leading edge of a surge of low to mid level moisture 
which is helping to support numerous moderate to strong 
convection from 05n to 14n between 85w and 91w. 

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10n82w to 11n91w, then
resumes west of a tropical wave near 12n94w to 13n97w to 10n113w
to 08n130w. The ITCZ axis extends from 08n130w to beyond 08n140w.
Other than convection associated with the two tropical waves
discussed above, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
of either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis between 102w
and 133w. 


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

A 1005 mb low is centered over the northern Gulf of California
near 31n114w with a surface trough axis that extends from 
Arizona, through the low, and across the southern Baja 
California. The pressure gradient between this low and higher 
pressure near guadalajara is producing strong west to southwest 
winds south of the low to 30n over the northern Gulf of 
California. These winds are likely supporting seas to 8 ft over 
this area. The winds are expected to continue through early 
Saturday before the low weakens and winds diminish. The pressure 
gradient between the trough over Baja California and higher 
pressures northwest of the region will support fresh northwest 
winds within about 90 nm of the West Coast of Baja California 
through early next week. Occasionally strong winds will be 
possible very near the coast in the afternoons. Otherwise, mainly
moderate northwest winds are expected west of Baja California.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave moving south of southern Mexico will
support numerous showers and thunderstorms the next couple of
days. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are occurring over the
offshore waters of Mexico south of the Baja California with seas
of 4 to 6 ft. These winds and seas are expected to prevail for 
the next several days. 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

The monsoon trough will intersect the region from west to east
through the next several days, supporting convection mainly 
north of around 03n. North of the trough axis mainly light to
gentle winds will prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft. To the south of
the trough axis moderate to fresh south to southwest winds can 
be expected with seas of 5 to 7 ft.  

Remainder of the area...

A storm system northeast of the discussion area has been causing
a weak pressure pattern over the northern waters north of 20n and
west of the Mexico offshore waters. This is resulting in mainly 
gentle to moderate winds over these waters with seas of 5 to 7 
ft. Winds to the south of 20n are a little stronger, with 
moderate to locally fresh northeast winds from the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough axis to 20n, and moderate and southerly winds to the 
south of these axes. A weak ridge is forecast to build over the 
northwestern waters near 30n133w over the weekend and meander 
over the area into early next week which will continue to support
gentle to moderate winds over the northern waters west of the 
Mexico offshore waters. As this ridge develops, winds over the 
waters south of 20n and north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough 
will increase slightly resulting in combined seas nearing 8 ft 
over these waters by early next week. 



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