Tropical Weather Discussion

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axpz20 knhc 181547
twdep 

Tropical weather discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC sun Feb 18 2018

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1545 UTC.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

A surface trough extends SW from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica 
at 09n85w to 06n103w where scatterometer winds indicate a 
transition to an ITCZ, which continues W to beyond 08n140w. A 
few tstms are flaring along the Pacific coast of Colombia.

 
...Discussion...

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

A gentle variable breeze continues around a weak N to S 
orientated trough analyzed from 29n118w to 24n115w, with cold 
front will sweep quickly E across the discussion area N of 28n 
through Mon eroding the trough followed by strengthening high 
pressure resulting in a strong NW breeze spreading se across the 
waters W of the baja norte on Mon into early Mon night, 
accompanied by NW swell building seas to 8 to 15 ft. The 
pressure gradient will relax some on Tue with seas subsiding to 
less than 8 ft on Wed night. 

Gulf of california: strong to near gale force SW-W winds, with 
seas to near 8 ft, will develop across the waters from 29.5n to 
31.5n on sun evening in association with a cold front. Strong to 
near gale northerly winds are also forecast NW of the front on 
Mon and Mon night, with seas building to 10 ft in the longer 
fetch waters. Conditions will quickly improve on Tue.

Gulf of tehuantepec: high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico 
will support fresh to strong northerly surges through the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec through Sun night, with these strong northerly 
winds resuming on Thu evening.

  
Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador... 

Gulf of papagayo: strong NE winds will continue to pulse through 
and downstream of the Gulf of papagayo through this week,
with seas building to 9 ft as far SW as 10n91w.

Gulf of panama: fresh to locally strong nocturnal N winds are 
expected across the western Gulf of Panama tonight with these 
conditions extending as far S as 05n80w. Mostly fresh 
nocturnal drainage flow then forecast through Fri night.  

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
09n while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 09n. 

Remainder of the area... 

A broad ridge covers the discussion waters N of the ITCZ and W 
of 120w, with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixing swell. The pressure 
gradient will tighten tonight with fresh to strong trades 
developing across the tropical waters W of 125w, while fresh to 
strong N winds spread S across the northern waters in the wake 
of a cold front sweeping E across the Baja Peninsula. Conditions 
will improve briefly across the sub-tropics on Thu, the 
deteriorate again behind another cold front on Fri.  

  
$$
Nelson


		
		

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