Tropical Weather Discussion

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axpz20 knhc 150305
twdep 
Tropical weather discussion  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Nov 15 2018  
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.      
...Special feature...
Gulf of Tehuantepec storm warning: storm force winds extending 
as far S as 14n95w will persist through late tonight with winds 
to 40 kt then persisting through sunrise on Fri. Gale conditions 
should end around sunrise on Sat. Strong to near gale winds will 
then pulse through at least late Tue night. Max seas of 22 ft 
are forecast well downstream near 13.5n96w, while seas 8 ft or 
greater, primarily due to the resultant NE swell mixing with 
cross-equatorial SW swell, are forecast to spread out across the 
waters from 03.4s to 14n between 90w and 115w by late Fri. These 
seas should diminish below 8 ft on Sun night, but continue 
across and just downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through 
the middle of next week. 
...Tropical wave...
A tropical wave has its axis from 04.5n130w to 16n130w, moving 
westward at 12 kt.  Convection is decreasing at the moment.
.Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 
The monsoon trough extends W-SW off the Pacific coast of 
Colombia at 10n75w across the northern Panama to the Pacific 
coast of Costa Rica at 08n83w, then continues W-SW to 05n102w 
where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, 
which then continues NW to 10n116w to 08n130w through a 
weakening tropical wave at 08n130w to 07n140w. 
Isolated moderate to strong within 75 nm either side of a line 
from 09n79w to 07n92w to 13n105w. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of a line 
from 10n113w to 08n140w.
...Discussion...
Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico... 
Gulf of Tehuantepec...refer to the special features section for 
the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.
Gulf of california: strong N winds, with seas to 7 ft, are 
expected N of 30n overnight. Fresh N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas 
expected elsewhere overnight with a moderate NW breeze, and 1 to 
3 ft seas, forecast across the entire Gulf on Thu afternoon 
through Thu night. 
A NW to se ridge extends across the Mexican waters W of 104w 
with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast through the 
upcoming weekend.
Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...
Gulf of papagayo...strong NE winds, with seas building to 10 ft 
downstream near 10n87w, are expected through Fri morning. Fresh 
to locally strong northerly flow is expected N of 12n between 
87w and 90w, including the Gulf of fonseca, through early Fri.
Northerly swells from a Gulf of tehunatepec gap event will
propagate into Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters 
through Thu morning.
Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is 
forecast S of the monsoon trough through the upcoming weekend.   
   
Remainder of the area...  
Refer to the special features section for swell propagating 
outward from the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
A ridge is meandering from 32n135w to beyond 22n116w. Fresh to 
locally strong trades, and 7 to 10 ft seas, are observed N of 
the ITCZ west of 110w. These conditions are forecast to shift 
westward and slowly diminish through Thu. 
A cold front will reach from 32n138w to 28n140w late Fri night 
accompanied by a fresh SW-W-NW wind shift and 7 to 9 ft seas.  
  
$$
Nelson

		
		
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